Posted Friday 15th February 2008 09:26 GMT
Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic #
MS has a lot of momentum and can continue for a long time without any useful output from the engine room.
What has MS actually done in the last few years that gets steam in the boilers?
Only the Office and OS groups make any useful cash. xbox might just be doing better then break-even but not enough to pay for the rum. Let's forget about the RRODs for a while.
Vista was pathetic. They only got sales because of existing market share and because they'd already taught the sales channels. Vista itself did nothing to defibrilate the corpse.
Zune. Nuff sed.
Uncle Bill has always pushed for MS to get into services because the OS does not matter in the long term. MSN and hotmail and their online music biz are falling like lead parachutes.
Yahoo is big, but also shows a similar lack of innovation. Buying Yahoo would give MS a reprieve, but no long term guarantees.
Earlier this week they bought Danger. Their current Smartphone suite is crap and they need something better, but primarily this was aimed at taking on Google Android.
What is obvious is that Ballmer now has an all consuming Google obsession. Both the Yahoo and Danger deals are directly aimed at trying to take on Google.
That obsession is so large that it is diverting MS from their only strengths: OS and Office. Vista apparently cost them $5bn to develop and they're willing to spend $40-odd bn for yahoo. If nothing else, this shows what's going on in Ballmer's brain.
It is all fine and well to diversify and explore new interests, but you need to keep core business healthy. That's especially true if you have a history of screwing up almost every acquisition and diversification effort. Ballmer is not doing that so MS is suffering.
I give then 10 years at the most.
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