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back to article PC sales forecast slashed on back of disk drive crisis

IHS has slashed PC sales forecasts for 2012 because of weakening demand and an ongoing disk drive crisis. HDD shortages triggered by the Thai floods will lead to a 3.8 million unit shortfall in PC shipments for Q1 compared to the beancounter's previous forecast, dragging down expectations for the whole year. “The PC supply …

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FAIL

"PC sales forecast slashed on back of disk drive crisis

Flagging global economy and fondleslab fever also to blame, says IHS"

So which one is it, limited supply or low demand? You can't really blame both at once (for obvious reasons)...

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Silver badge
Happy

Sure you can! This is economics!

Who said it had to make sense, be useful as a prediction or bear more than a passing resemblance to reality?

More seriously, the global economy might be reducing demand by some amount, but the supply side still can't even keep up with that, raising prices and thus reducing demand even further.

For example, I was in the market for a new NAS array this quarter, but the HDD shortages and associated price increases have meant that I've put it off for a while because I can't afford it at the inflated price.

Under 'normal' supply conditions I would have bought that set of disks, despite the ongoing global economic situation.

Clearly, any BOFH who can find a way of waiting until HDD prices come back down is going to do so - perhaps by applying some compression/dedupe technology or by scaling back a planned project.

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Facepalm

Umm, you can

Having less drives means you can only make so many computers. So sales are going to be depressed just from not having enough computers to sell to meet the numbers expected, i.e. if they said you would sell 35 computers, but you only have 27, you cannot reach the stated goal without some really, really new math.

But if people are not going to buy the computers anyway, the actual number of computers won't change that. Lets say some number (7) of our projected 35 computer buyers are going to not buy because they are either (1) moving into a refrigerator box this February, or (2) have decided they would rather buy a fondleslab since it meets their needs/wants better, or (3) both. So, you are going to sell at most 28 computers - less than the 35 predicted

Either condition (or both) could be the cause of the missed forecast - you cannot in absolute terms actually make the forecast because you don't have the physical objects to sell; and even if you did, you don't have the customers to sell them to. Voila, both conditions mean you will not meet the forecast numbers.

Having a scarcity does not in any way negate desire to buy, nor does having no desire to buy affect a scarcity (excepting De Beers, of course). Despite what the name implies, the Law of Supply and Demand does not mean they are part of a zero-sum game. They may interact to decide price, but they do not, in and of themselves, cancel each other out like matter and antimatter

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Happy

Over supply... great, I estimate I'll be needing to upgrade some of my drives to larger ones on the HTPC and NAS around the end of summer next year... I can stretch that out a little longer if needed.

With any luck prices will have fallen back to or be cheaper than before the hikes... a couple of 3TB to replace the 1TB and 1.5TB (my smallest drives) will see me well into 2014 before I need to consider upgrading the other 1.5TB and couple of 2TB drives.

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Bronze badge

You're forgetting

supply and demand. If the supply's there and demand is low prices go down thus pushing up demand. That's not happening here.

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I predict

I predict that by mid 2012 there will be a glut of disk drives. Higher drive prices will mean that they will run the production lines flat out.

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Anonymous Coward

Rubbish

Complete nonsense, do the media and assorted sales execs think we're as stupid as they are?

Stock. People have it.

Other manufacturers, they exist.

This is the petrol companies leaving ships just off the horizon until petrol price goes up.

This is De Beers hoarding diamonds in a vault in Switzerland to keep the price of a common rock favourably high (and the corrupt import/export laws that keep them in control)

This is every "buy it before its gone" scam ever.

My response, I will no longer buy parts from these manufacturers, and I'm the kind of dick that sticks to that long after I stopped caring about the actual event.

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