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back to article PEAK APPLE: One MILLION fewer iPads sold this quarter

It’s lonely at the top, or so saying goes, but Apple may not have to wait too much longer before it rubs shoulders with those playing catch-up in the global PC arena after Q2 sales declined off the back of a slab crash. Figures for the last three months collated by the beancounters at Canalys show Tim Cook’s lot sold nearly one …

I wouldn't say it is Peak Apple

Rather I would say that just as Tablet's caused a slowdown in the PC Market, Phablets or larger screen phones are causing a similar slowdown in the Tablet market.

People are now finding that their needs are being met by their smartphone. The need for the Tablet is slowly being negated.

In fact I am sure that Apple have already seen the writing on the wall with the rumored higher orders of iPhones made to their manufacturers, certainly if they really are launching two sizes of iPhone screen, one being 5.5 inch -- a phablet -- they are quite possibly expecting to canibalize the iPad Mini Sales. Those that would buy the Mini as a second mobile device may very likely only get the iPhone with 5.5 inch screen and be happy with that one device for all their needs.

When I switched from Verizon to T-Mobile I purchased a Nexus 5 simply because I was cheaper when paying full price for a device and I didn't want to pay a premium for another iPhone 5S.

In the 9 months that have passed I have found that I use my iPad less, the little 7 inch Samsung Tablet I bought gathers dust and is never used.

You just have to look at markets where Android Phablets are the sole internet device of the owner. They don't purchase a PC, they don't purchase a Tablet they just have their Phablet and they get by fine!

The market is just changing and changing faster.

In fact pretty soon I expect that the Smartphone market will slow down in developed countries where they, just as they did with PC's, find that their Smartphone does perfectly well for what they do and they wait much longer, or until their device fails, before they purchase a replacement.

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Re: I wouldn't say it is Peak Apple

In support of your argument, I'd also suggest that people are more willing to overlook shortcomings in their tablets than they are in their phones. Most tablets tend to reside in the home, so are closer to a power point.... battery isn't as important. Weight isn't as big an issue, since they aren't carried around as often as phones. Because phones are carruied out and about, they are more likely to incur damage, cosmetic or otherwise.

If a phone runs out of battery, the user is put out of touch with friends and family. If a tablet runs out of juice, a phone can pick up most, if not all, of the tablet's duties.

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Re: I wouldn't say it is Peak Apple

To StimuliC's point, if he's right the release of a 5.5" iPhone might be a big hit on sales of the iPad. Not that Apple would mind, assuming that availability of a phablet-sized iPhone increases its sales. Not to mention that the iPhone has a higher margin than the iPad anyway.

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Correlation != Causation

There is no evidence that tablets caused the slowdown in PC sales. All we knopw is that they happened at more or less the same time.

People used to buy a new computer every two years or so because computers were getting better at an amazing rate. Now, meh. My 3 year old laptop and 18 month old laptop are great. The latest offerings are not worth buying because they are not a big enough step up.

Coincidentally (from a customer perspective), tablets came on the market at about the same time and people had something else to buy.

The vendors like Apple knew this already, before they launched the tablets. They **knew** the computer market would saturate and stagnate and that is why they brought in new products to keep their revenue going.

So you really have cause and effect the wrong way around.

"... just as Tablet's caused a slowdown in the PC Market..."

should read

"... just as a slowdown in the PC Market caused the introduction of Tablets ..."

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Re: Correlation != Causation

A lot of us suggested that tablets would cause a slowdown in PC sales, and then they slowed down. Maybe we were right for the wrong reasons, but I know multiple people who ditched their PC for a tablet. The kind of people who only bought a PC because it was the only way to browse the web and send/receive email don't want a PC, they want to browse the web and send/receive email. A tablet is a superior way to meet this need.

Some techies will never ever understand this, because they can only think about all the things they do with a PC that a tablet is ill suited for, or how much of a pain it would be to spend 12 hours a day in front of a tablet. They make the mistake of equating how they use a PC to how everyone else does.

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Re: I wouldn't say it is Peak Apple

Er... no. Read again:

"the total slab market world-wide bounced 41.5 per cent year-on-year, those emblazoned with a certain fruit fell 9.2 per cent"

So, while growth is slowing down overall, Apple's share is getting smaller. For a while now, so not sure why the surprise. And no wonder. I for example bought a much better tablet for much less money than the equivalent Apple one would cost. So apart from people who are bound to the platform by some specific app that is critical and not available elsewhere, why pay more? Also, as people learn that they use tablets for surfing the Web and little else, as someone said, why again pay more? Status?

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Re: Correlation != Causation

>So you really have cause and effect the wrong way around.

>"... just as Tablet's caused a slowdown in the PC Market..."

>should read

>"... just as a slowdown in the PC Market caused the introduction of Tablets ..."

... or...

Just as battery, processor and screen technology reached a point at which the majority of (non-techie) PC users could finally have the limited web / simple email / social networking device they really wanted all along, they bought it.

And PC sales levels realigned to the market that actually needed computers (*) as they always had since the first PCs (and way before the P part), i.e. accounting types, bisiness and technical users, writers of substantial documents, programmers, etc.

(*) Yes, of course they're all computers really, under the skin, even smartphones and iThings, but most of them are locked down / simplified / prettified to suit people who don't really want / understand actual *computers*.

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Relying on China

...just at a point where China seems to be going in to protectionist mode.

From an armchair standpoint, that seems like a risky strategy even though they have previously enjoyed violence at some of their Chinese stores on release day.

Time to grab some popcorn methinks.

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Perhaps?

The current models on sale do the job they are meant to do perfectly well?

Did anyone ask if people were dissatisfied with their iPads?

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Re: Perhaps?

You're absolutely right. However I'm the exception here.

1) I invested in an iPad mini retina just before the start of the year because the form factor meant It was significantly more portable - just slip it into a cargo pants pocket.

2) I bought an iPad Air a few months ago as I needed a bit more horsepower to run a few soft synths together with a sequencer for output to my DAW. The iPad mini was loaded up with my general day to day stuff and didn't have the memory capacity remaining to do what I wanted and the iPad 2 just didn't have the processing oomph for job.

If it wasn't for that then I would have still been happily using the iPad 2 - which I might add my GF is now using, and is well chuffed with it.

It's not peak Apple really, it's peak tablet in general.

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Headmaster

Invested?

I love it when people call toy buying an investment:

" I invested in an iPad mini retina"

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Re: Invested?

Toy investment can be very profitable.

I have a collection of 500+ Dinky, Corgi 'toys' plus an extensive collection of Hornby 3 Rail '00' Gauge track locos etc. All boxed and in mint condition. Worth a heck of a lot more dosh than what was paid for it.

Back to the Apple thread.

I would hazard at a guess that an Apple Toy (viz iPad) will be worth more after 2 years than the equivalen Android or Surface devices in terms of % value retention.

For many people a Tablet (of whatever sort) is not a toy, it is a tool. If the device you have helps you get things done then it is IMHO, not a toy.

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Re: Perhaps?

>You're absolutely right. However I'm the exception here.

>1) I invested in an iPad mini retina

You might well be (the exception). We usually describe buying something certain to decrease in value as an expense. Investments normally go the other way. (The stock market and the horses are gambles and go either way).

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Re: Invested?

"Toy investment can be very profitable.

I have a collection of 500+ Dinky, Corgi 'toys' plus an extensive collection of Hornby 3 Rail '00' Gauge track locos etc. All boxed and in mint condition. Worth a heck of a lot more dosh than what was paid for it."

So you're suggesting that when iPads are historical interesting quirks, left behind long ago by the passag of toys, the very few people who have kept them in unopened boxes for many years will have something worth something? Yes, that sounds reasonable. But for the other 99.99999% of of buyers who haven't it won't have been an investment, will it?

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Re: Invested?

"I would hazard at a guess that an Apple Toy (viz iPad) will be worth more after 2 years than the equivalen Android or Surface devices in terms of % value retention."

Maybe. But when the huge iPad profit margin that would have paid for two or three almost-as-good / better Android devices is taken into account, the iPad still amounts to a pretty large financial loss in comparison.

Unless, of course, a picture of a bitten apple is "worth" the large premium, as it clearly is to some types.

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Re: Invested?

I would hazard at a guess that an Apple Toy (viz iPad) will be worth more after 2 years than the equivalen Android or Surface devices in terms of % value retention.

And yet, it's still not an investment.

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Joke

Re: Invested?

"I love it when people call toy buying an investment:"

But doesn't "investing" sound so much more grown up and cool than "buying"! ;-)

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Anonymous Coward

RE: It's a purchase not an investment

To be fair, you're looking at this in a very narrow way.

If a financial outlay produces a financial benefit of higher worth, then that's an investment regardless of it also being a purchase.

The commenter states he needed a newer model for the extra synth-handling performance. If he makes some kind of living from the result then that enhanced throughput may well make it an investment.

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Tablets have a longer useful life than a phone

People are more apt to replace phones because they're subject to more use and abuse, cellular standards are constantly evolving, and in some markets carriers often some sort of subsidy that make upgrades easier.

Tablets are more likely to stay at home most of the time, and aren't as "personal" a device since you don't take them everywhere you go. Thus people may be willing to live with shortcomings (real or perceived) of an older model tablet for longer than they would a phone.

Those using a tablet as a PC replacement, the type who need only a browser and email client and don't care about PC applications, probably don't run many or any apps on their tablet. My girlfriend has an iPhone and runs plenty of apps on it, but she never runs apps on her tablet. She uses it mainly for surfing the web. If you don't run apps on your tablet, it might not matter even to an iPhone owner whether they get an iPad or a much cheaper Android tablet. Used for browsing alone, there is precious little difference between the two aside from price.

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Linux

Still, they can always look to mobile can't they?

Oh, wait...

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Re: Still, they can always look to mobile can't they?

Depends how you define peak Apple. In terms of peak influence, yeah, we're past that. But iPhone sales continue to go up year-on-year. The broadening of the market just makes Apple an increasingly less singularly notable player.

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ipads are very ugly

how can you make quite a nice screen look ugly you can put it in a flattened coke can with an apple on the back. looks like a turd. everyone who wants one already has three. just like the ipod, who is really going to buy this shit now??????????????

luckily for apple my prose is like a bullet train carrying the clue bat to Tim Cook's head at over 200mph

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Mac Sales

To the extent that the growth in the Mac market is as a result of the gateway drug of iPod/Phone/Pad can we expect an eventual deceleration in Mac sales too?

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Re: Mac Sales

"Mac Sales

To the extent that the growth in the Mac market is as a result of the gateway drug of iPod/Phone/Pad can we expect an eventual deceleration in Mac sales too?"

Yes. It's quite a few years since the last of three successful new things (iPod/Phone/Pad) appeared, with no sign of a long awaited follow-on. (A limited appeal watch doesn't count as most people aren't going to start wearing watches of any brand).

If I start tossing a coin I'm going to get a run of three heads or three tails before too long. A run of four is much less likely in a short time frame, five much less so still...

It's beginning to look as if a business model based on three heads and a "cool factor" needs to change before it fizzles out. Inertia / momentum mean that the steamroller will probably keep rolling for a while yet. But long enough for a 4th head to land? And a 5th...? It's a matter of faith versus probability and I'd put money on the numbers winning within a few years.

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Re: Mac Sales

I know a lot of people with Macs. Quite a few have an iPad (inc. me).

Exactly zero of them bought an iPad and then thought - "wow, this is cool I had better buy a Mac."

Your statement that iPads drive Mac sales is at best a wild, unsubstantiated guess and judging by my personal sphere of obervation, completely wrong.

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Boffin

Meh.

No real news here...

I have an old iPad 1 that I replaced with an iPad 2 because I wanted the telco option not just wifi.

Both are working fine... Will I buy another? sure when one of them breaks down to the point it is no longer usable, or is outdated.

Apple would have to introduce a new killer 'must have' feature for me to upgrade...

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Paris Hilton

As any old dudes will tell you the usefulness of these devices is awesomenable in the most megasense doable.

Its stunning what modern kit can do ... . ?

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