So what would the economic effect of leaving the EU be?

Re: Harry

@ fredsmith999

Your point as I read it was that we would still have to "meet their (safety) standards" - meaning the EU's standards.

I don't think that anyone (sensible) is against supranational standards. They promote free trade by preventing local barriers. They mean that e.g. you can buy a battery that fits your camera wherever you are in the world - AA size is international.

The point is that it is not the EU that sets the standards, but the EU gets to interpose itself between the nation states which it governs and the various international bodies that set the standards.

For example, despite its obvious direct interest, the UK does not get to sit at the negotiating table on the international committee that deals with Fish and Fisheries Products. The EU negotiates for us, as one of 28 member states. Norway by contrast, population 5 million, an EFTA member and in the "Common Market" with the EU, gets its own seat.

Who is likely to get the better outcome when the standards are handed down?

Re: Harry

>>"A Survation poll"

I'm not sure any polling company qualifies as reliable, but Survation bring a new low. I saw UKIP pamphlets backed up with Survation "figures" showing the huge numbers of people planning to vote for UKIP which turned out to be grossly exaggerated to how many actually turned out. Or if in some technical / wording sleight of hand that isn't what they were actually saying, it was certainly the impression that was deliberately created. I've also heard pretty bad things about their neutrality elsewhere.

Re: Harry

UKIP is never going to get what it wants because Scotland is 2:1 in favour of the EU so the UK probably wouldn't survive an exit.

Scotland is irrelevant to the debate. It's just a (very) noisy city.

The UK hasn't survived the independence vote, its only the politicians that don't see it. Scotland stirred up so much ill will during the campaign that there's no going back; And that's before Sturgeons horrors begin their disruptive and devisive politicking at Westminster. The UK in anything like its current incarnation is already toast.

So, the EU. I could vote either way.... In its current form it simply doesn't work well, but it could work better if reformed and significantly slimmed down.

Free movement works great if English is your second language (most of Europe), less well if it's your only language (most of the UK). Free movement of criminals (including our homegrown ones) hasn't added value, so there's scope for considerable reform there. Free movement of goods..... not sure about that one yet. On one hand, cheaper stuff, on the other, it's cheaper because its effectively vat free (Amazon Sarl anyone?).

State pensions... Britain has a full pension after 30 years residency, so economically it makes sense to accrue that then move abroad and contribute to another system. After 50 years working, you'd have pretty close to two full pensions. That seems silly - it'd be better integrated into an EU wide scheme.

So yeah, EU... I could vote either way, and remain to be convinced. But Scotland... Scotland isn't even part of the debate - there's just too few Scots to matter. Sorry.

Re: Harry

You cannot be part of the EEA without subscribing to:

2. Most of EU environmental regulation and a lot of the economic ones.

Which are the good bits, worth keeping

What Cameron and company wants is to restrict these

No, those are the bits that Farage wants to get rid of, Cameron & co are happy to keep them, they want to get rid of the political interference, which seems to be pretty much the majority UK view.

Re: Harry

@ Voland's right hand (Silver badge!)

1. Yes, free movement of labour within EEA is fine - and part of the deal. Also fine is that movement of non-labour (benefit tourism, etc.) is not free.

2. Mostly it's *not* EU regulation. It's imposed via the EU but is actually made by and then handed down from international bodies above the EU. Banking regulation derives from the FSB (Google it), not the EU.

No problem at all with European neighbours - I speak a bit in 6 EU languages, have LT Godson. Several colleagues and neighbours are from EU countries. But EU itself is a bad thing, of which we would better be out.

BTW: have you read the Patterson speech, or Richard North's stuff? I would be good to know about what you are disagreeing with.

Re: Harry

Quite. I live in lovely Switzerland. But those not blindly following the SVP and even some of those are distinctly nervous that we will lose some rather useful labour. Just who will staff hospitals, many pharmaceutical, bank and industrial departments? Who will serve us in our rather good restaurants, clean the lavatories and generally wipe our noses and bottoms? Worse still, we shall be back to being trapped on our little patch of Europe, where just as immigrants can not get in, we can not get out. I recall clearly some anguished conversations with, for instance, hotel management staff, lamenting in the pre-treaty days that they could not move to London or Paris to broaden their experience. I recall Swiss waiting in long queues at Heathrow and at Dover, being quizzed about their finances, their return tickets, how long they intended to stay. No fun at all.

My mother, in England, has got a Polish dentist (West of England) and I noticed, last time I was there, a lot of EU citizens making sure services I use are there.

As for the daft claims about immigration: recent figures I saw (not to hand) showed that about half are not from the EU but from Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Were they serious about immigration, that could be stopped over night. But of course, UKIP and eccentric Tories are not intelligent, clear-eyed or serious.

Then should GB pull out, will the return of many of the 2 million expats really be welcomed, replacing youngish, educated workers with ageing, often retired and not so well off, miserable people?

Then again, it is irritating enough for Brits not being in Schengen and so having to show passports when the rest of us do not. Imagine when they are really outside and are trapped on their overcrowded, under-paid little islands. Why would anyone vote to surrender the freedom to live and work anywhere in the the vast area of Europe? Life is about more than business, trade or xenophobia. Business is here to serve us, not the other way around, just as governments and countries are. If we become subservient to them, democracy is dead.

Re: Cameron ... _LEAVING_ the EEA period.

Cameron does not want this (at least publicly). He wants a rearrangement of the structure, and a referendum, to 1. apply pressure for restructure 2. Placate the kippers and 3. Settle the matter.

The Green Party policy is similar (but for different reasons).

The Tories basically don't want the EU protecting the little people from their rich mates. Whereas the greens favour decentralisation, (but like the freedom of movement) however, I think we should sort our own democracy out before we start whinging about the EU. (At least EU votes actually elect people).

What no-one addresses is if the freedom of movement is lost, what happens to all the Brits using it to retire in the warm? I'm sure they won't actually simply be chucked out, but I suspect there would be progressively more expensive annual visas, plus requirements for fluency in the local language. Meaning most will come home in poverty (since their houses won't be worth much). I guess they could move in to the homes vacated by the Euro workers currently here. Who would actually do the work to replace them though, and where would they live?

Re: Harry

@Voland

"... I did not notice any British natives at consultant level, there was on trainee doctor and some of the midwives. It was exactly the case of German surgeon, Romanian anaesthesiologist and Italian head nurse. So the observation that NHS is in the same boat (or worse) than the Swiss health service is a first hand one."...

1. Yes but non-free flow of EU people will not (hopefully) stop skilled labour from being employed. They will just have to get work visas.

2. The fact that there are so many foreign people in the NHS is a symptom of lack of investment in training local doctors and nurses - there are always more suitably qualified applicants than there are places for medical students in the UK.

3. Supposedly it costs UKP250k & years to train a doctor. If we outsource this to Poland, Romainia, India or wherever, are we not leaving these other countries in short supply of staff?

I don't really have an answer but if everyone that wants to come to the UK, were able to, the locals would be outnumbered...

Re: Harry

Indeed. There is more than meets the (casual) eye in this, but bottom line is that if Cameron wants to renegotiate terms to restrict immigration he will not succeed as freedom of movement is a basic principle of the EU and there is simply no way Member States will reopen this issue.

So if Cameron makes this an absolute must, then the EU will simply say bye bye UK.

Re: Ireland / Éire

wouldn't we throw the French & Spanish out of our waters? UK fishermen actually record their catches.

The problem with the EU is it has lots of rules and only the UK seems to obey them.

A points based Visa waiver system would be fine allowing us to steal pre trained Doctors & nurses whist keeping out European Criminals that seem to like it here (we could keep our native ones to save embarrassment).

Such a system would slow the dragging down of wages that is happening because accession nation nationals are willing to earn much less, not because they are special , I'm pretty sure if someone paid you the equivalent of £125k to clean tables you would be very willing.

As mentioned above we are just stacking up problems for the future having bottled it as far as reducing pension demand by raising the retirement age, old age provision etc something we could have done back in the 70s when we first realised the population was changing.

The argument seems to be if we vote to leave a club that we pay significant membersip fees and buy lots of goods from they will stop selling things to us or buying things from us to spite us. If we try to change the rules then we will be sorry