back to article Research: Microsoft the fastest growing maker of tablet OSs ... by 2019

Enterprise adoption of Windows-powered computing slabs will make Microsoft the fastest growing tablet computer maker by 2019. That’s according to Strategy Analytics, which reckons Microsoft will hold 18 per cent of the global tablet operating system market in four years – up from 10 per cent now. Android will remain top dog, …

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  1. graeme leggett Silver badge

    first tablet?

    Windows XP Tablet PC Edition

    2002 (and SP in 2005)

    More accurate to say MS had tried and given up before the iPad?

    1. chivo243 Silver badge

      Re: first tablet?

      I actually saw one. It seemed to work for the sales droid using it. It appeared to be a laptop folded backwards with a stylus for input. And technically, you are correct, MS tried and gave up due to poor acceptance. Funny how that works.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: first tablet?

        I remember RM Computing produced a range of dismal tablets for the education market. Slow, at least an inch thick, with poor quality screens and running a copy of Windows XP for tablets.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: first tablet?

      However as usual MS didn't have a clue and their politburo design philosophy fucked it up. However you have a short memory, the Apple Newton was around long before Microsoft's pitiful efforts so it's more accurate to say Microsoft gave up trying after Apple dropped the Newton.

      1. Mage Silver badge

        Re: first tablet?

        Apple Newton was a PDA killed by Jobs, but helped jumpstart ARM, not a tablet. There were earlier ones based on CMOS 8 bit CPUs.

    3. Richard Plinston

      Re: first tablet?

      > 2002 (and SP in 2005)

      Actually a decade earlier:

      http://haverzine.com/2013/12/20/microsoft-mobile-part-1-the-birth-of-pen-windows/

      1. PhilipN Silver badge

        Re: first tablet?

        Don't forget GO and it's Pen OS.

        Very promising, which is why MS stomped on it.

    4. Charles Manning

      Much longer than that

      MS did a touch add-on for tablets for Windows 3.11. In 1995 I needed a portable platform to do some MSDOS field testing and used one of these, thoush I just used it in MSDOS mode and never fired up the WIndows 3.11 or used the touch.

      Tablet was Bill Gates' obsession. Every Comdex he waved around a new tablet that was supposedly much better than the last one and was going to be the "killer platform". One of them was the UMPC.

      Nothing significant came from any of them.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Joke

        Re: Much longer than that

        Windows 3.1? MSDOS? Not even close...

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kish_tablet

      2. John Doe 6

        Re: Much longer than that

        I have a Compaq Concerto from 1994, it came with Windows for Pen Computing 1.0.

        You can see the Concerto here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compaq_Concerto

        It is the same concept as Surface Pro: Desktop Windows OS with touch/pen features and a detachable keyboard (quite good), performance was also as a laptop and weight was acceptable also as a tablet.

    5. Bob Vistakin
      FAIL

      Re: first tablet?

      Sounds great!

  2. BobChip
    Big Brother

    5 years is a long time

    5 years to rebuild customer confidence? Starting from what is now a very low base? I wonder who will remember this prediction five years from now. I'll believe it when I see it.

    1. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge

      Re: 5 years is a long time

      Customer Confidence in that everythnig you do on an MS Tablet will be slurped and sent to the Motherships in Redmond and Virginia/Cheltenham.

      I see businesses really jumping on that bandwagon.

      Don't forget the Advertising that MS will make sure that you don't miss out on at all times.

      Cynical? Moi?

      Come on MS do the decent thing and stop all this tracking/data slurping. Then you might have a chance to get a decent market share.

    2. SuccessCase

      Re: 5 years is a long time

      "I wonder who will remember this prediction five years from now. I'll believe it when I see it."

      Indeed this is the same Strategy Analytics as about 4 years ago claimed Samsung were about to surpass Apple in handset profit...

    3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: 5 years is a long time

      "I wonder who will remember this prediction five years from now."

      What predictions for 2015 were this soothsayers making 5 years ago?

      1. Richard Plinston

        Re: 5 years is a long time

        > What predictions for 2015 were this soothsayers making 5 years ago?

        http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_overtake_iphone_ios_by_2015.html

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: 5 years is a long time

          "http://www.pcworld.com/article/230151/idc_windows_phones_to_overtake_iphone_ios_by_2015.html"

          I wonder why they didn't remind us of their previous predictions.

          When these firms trot out their press releases I wish the media would ask them for their previous predictions for now. And if they don't provide them, just dig out a few from the archives.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: 5 years is a long time

            "I wonder why they didn't remind us of their previous predictions."

            Indeed, Windows phone sales world wide 2015Q3 1.7% fallen from 3% 2014Q3. Not the 20% they predicted.

            http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3169417

            1. Otto is a bear.

              Re: 5 years is a long time

              The thing about percentages is that you can grow your market share even in a falling market. In fact you can make less product than previously and still grow market share. Not that the tablet market will be falling in five years, now will it.

              The trouble with analysts is that they rarely show the base numbers, that these predictions are made on. I'm sure Apple will grow their market share of my domestic tablets by 25% in the next year and that Android's share will drop to 50%. Now guess how many tablets I have in my household.

      2. Michael Thibault

        Re: 5 years is a long time

        Given the uncertainties we all must face with imperfect foresight, Mr. King, we envision that you will (probably) be able to pick up your pay cheque for this week in early 2020. In such case, you will, of course, have to sign for it.

        Thank you for your contribution to Strategy Analytics, and for being such a good a team player.

      3. Charles Manning

        Re: 5 years is a long time

        Microsoft were saying "within 5 years" about pen tablets in 1995.

        When the released a few Windows CE devices a few years later they said: "See, we told you!"

    4. Daryl @ Emerset

      Re: 5 years is a long time

      MS doesn't lack customer confidence in the enterprise space. Most businesses run on a Windows platform which is why high end Windows devices are predicted to excel.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: 5 years is a long time

        >>> MS doesn't lack customer confidence in the enterprise space.

        With respect, I'm not sure I'd agree with that. We all know microsoft produce sh*te - and I'm no great fan of the competition - but FUD keeps us with them. I wouldn't say people have any actual confidence.

        Look at it from a CIOs perspective... they buy the latest version of windows, they keep their jobs, even if it's some mess like 8/8.1/10. They switch to linux and something, anything goes wrong and someone will be stabbing them in the back and taking their job in seconds. "They did what????"

        It's like "no one ever got fired for buying IBM" again.

        But credit where it's due, MS are a much better company now Satya's in charge.

        1. ADRM

          Re: 5 years is a long time

          "But credit where it's due, MS are a much better company now Satya's in charge".

          As Dr. Sheldon Cooper would say sarcasm?

          As all I see is a monopoly company lurching from one missed opportunity to another and always doing the wrong thing.

          Windows 8 don't need a start menu, Windows 10 tracking and invasion pf privacy and you will upgrade by hell or high water.

  3. Steve Todd

    Were chicken entrails or tea leaves used for this prediction?

    Given that analysts consistently fail to predict what's going on in the current quarter who here thinks they stand a chance of getting anywhere close to correct in 3-4 years?

    1. Anonymous Coward
      WTF?

      Re: Were chicken entrails or tea leaves used for this prediction?

      Yup. Pretty certain that entrails of something or other formed this "prediction"

      Quietly confident it was those of a bovine male.

  4. Sr. Handle

    The same as IDC predictions?

    I remember IDC telling "by 2012 Microsoft will be the second smartphone platform just behind Android" they see MS taking 23% of the market, oh surprise it didn't happen.

    1. Planty Bronze badge

      Re: The same as IDC predictions?

      These research forms say whatever you want them to say. Microsoft has very deep pockets

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The same as IDC predictions?

        Never marry a statistician.

        https://xkcd.com/605/

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Analysts strike again...

    Their predictions are about as reliable as weather forecasts. Nobody would attempt to forecast the weather for a 4 year period, though.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Analysts strike again...

      2019 will be warmer than that year's annual mean in the summer and colder than the annual mean in the winter (northern hemisphere, probably)

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Analysts strike again...

        "2019 will be warmer etc"

        A down vote? Maybe someone can't read properly.

        An alternative forecast for 2019: 2019 will have weather.

    2. a_yank_lurker

      Re: Analysts strike again...

      Correction - Less reliable than a weather forecast fours hence.

    3. Tom 7

      Re: Analysts strike again...

      In 4 years time people will be sticking RaspberryPi zeros in old tablets by the billion.

  6. Zippy's Sausage Factory

    So in three years, they'll still be number 3?

    Such a great prediction...

  7. phands

    Yeah, yeah, yeah....and windoze phone was the wave of the future...

    Despite many predictions by these waste-of-space companies, windoze phone is at 1.7%, down from 7% when it first came out. Essentially, it's dead. This "prediction" sounds like it was paid for by a very desperate microsoft.

  8. a_yank_lurker

    More Clueless than a PHB

    This "analysis" must be the result of a few too many pints at the local pub. Tablets and 2-in-1s are not laptops. Laptops are reasonably practical, mobile devices for office staff because they are completely self-contained.

  9. Joerg

    By 2019 Microsoft might have gone the RIM route...

    Windows8 sucks.

    Windows8.1 sucks.

    Windows8.2=10 sucks.

    The whole Metro/ModernUI childish unusable nonsense crap sucks.

    Surface sucks.

    Surface 2 sucks.

    Surface 3 sucks

    Surface 4 sucks

    Surface Pro sucks

    Surface Pro 2 sucks

    Surface Pro 3 sucks

    Surface Pro 4 sucks

    Surface Book sucks

    They even managed to make a mess on their server OSes. Windows Servers 2012 even thanks to the atrocious Metro/ModernUI is way worse than the excellent Windows Server 2008 (which was the server edtion of Windows 7 practically).

    Windows Server 2016 is going to be a huge mess with the whole hypervisor/virtual machines nonsense they came up with along with more of their cloud crap forced on users even at the enterprise level.

    1. Throatwarbler Mangrove Silver badge
      Thumb Down

      Re: By 2019 Microsoft might have gone the RIM route...

      I have a Surface Pro 3, and I love it. It's a fast, lightweight desktop replacement which can easily drive a 24" LED screen at maximum resolution. The battery life is also phenomenal compared to a bog-standard laptop.

      For that matter, I also like Windows 10. I thought 8.1 was decent, once you got rid of the Start screen, and Windows 10 deals with the Start menu issue in a much more elegant way. It's also fast, stable, and generally intuitive, especially compared with Windows 8/8.1. The data slurping allegations are troubling, but I've turned off most of the telemetry anyway.

      Now, I expect the usual accusation of fanboyism to be leveled at me, so let me be clear that I started as a Surface skeptic, and I had a number of choice criticisms of Windows 8 when it came out that yielded significant vitriol from the true Microsoft fanboys.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: By 2019 Microsoft might have gone the RIM route...

        can easily drive a 24" LED screen at maximum resolution.

        So it fucking should at that price!!! Especially when you consider I've got a 50 quid Chinandroid doing the same.

        1. Geoffrey W

          Re: By 2019 Microsoft might have gone the RIM route...

          RE: ...I've got a 50 quid Chinandroid...

          Probably got a few other things you're unaware of and wouldn't like if you were.

      2. Mellipop

        Re: By 2019 Microsoft might have gone the RIM route...

        You might have the latest toy, sir. Enterprises will still give their serfs the cheapest corporate deal from the likes of Dell or HP.

        If staff were free to choose their own devices Microsoft would lose the enterprise market, too. Administration in my company works on a browser.

        The only thing Microsoft has left to control are the hobbled 'open source' office file formats.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Who paid for the survey, Microsoft ?

    Well I do suppose selling 10 tablets per year instead of 2 between now and 2019 does give you stellar growth.

    1. Anonymous Bullard

      Who paid for the survey, Microsoft ?

      I doubt it.. the report isn't exactly glowing - they're still a minority in 4 years time, only just broke out of the "Other" category.

    2. David Walker

      NO KIDDING

      No kidding. Five years - yah and there won't be any disruption or other technology that will come along during that time.... from vapour-ware to vapour-norm. Five years ago it was we'll have a phone any day to kill iPhone. So they have the phone. Few want it but that's ok, because soon we'll all crave it. Compelled by the amazingly similar features that all vendors are already producing. We'll all have one - in five years - what's the hook: well its really much the same as what we have now but with a different logo than android or iOS (robots and apples are just SO passé when you can have ... rectangles) and we'll all be driven to buy it because it's so 'enterprise'. After all consumer gadgets just reek enterprise.

  11. fishman

    Monkeys throwing poo

    Monkeys throwing poo tend to be more accurate than these anal-cysts.

    1. Geoffrey W

      Re: Monkeys throwing poo

      RE: "Monkeys throwing poo"

      That's no way to talk of your fellow commentards in this thread

  12. The Average Joe

    2019.... bye bye Microsoft! LOL

    Will normal users even care about a Windows PC/Laptop/Tablet/Covetable?

    99% of the computers used at home are just for tasks that an iPad or Android tablet can do.

    Before tablets I was always suggesting that home users pick an OS that was easy to manage and one that was not complex. I told them to buy a Mac...

    Now that ChromeBooks, ChromeBoxes, iPads and Android tablets exist there is NO reason for ANYONE to buy a PC anymore. Sure businesses can because they have a LARGE amount of commercial software, in house custom software and PC management tools purchased to herd all those cats(PC's).

    So what can PC do? Nothing but get replaced by something less complex and less expensive.

    You could say Microsoft will die a death by 1,000 cuts, none of us who experienced the abuse from them will shed a tear....

    1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: 2019.... bye bye Microsoft! LOL

      "99% of the computers used at home are just for tasks that an iPad or Android tablet can do."

      Citation? Or was this one of the 80% of statistics on the internet that are made up on the spot.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Windows

        Re: 2019.... bye bye Microsoft! LOL

        "Citation? Or was this one of the 80% of statistics on the internet that are made up on the spot."

        Yes. Now all we need is an anecdote ...

        ... ah yes: I run two client server DBs (MariaDB + PostgreSQL) and a web server on my laptop. Plus a Win 2012 R2 VM in KVM when desperate for a fix of IE so I can configure certain switches and SANs. I am also at this moment running a fairly hefty array of pen testing stuff and a kernel compile in the background. My lap is getting quite warm BTW.

        Made up stats and an anecdote - now that's proper scientific like.

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