back to article Tesla books over $8bn in overnight sales claims Elon Musk

It has been a very good day for Tesla, after its CEO reports the firm took orders for over 196,000 new Model 3 electric cars. Thought it would slow way down today, but Model 3 order count is now at 198k. Recommend ordering soon, as the wait time is growing rapidly. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 1, 2016 The new car went on …

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  1. Herby

    Futures market??

    Then again, it could be tulips.

    Me? I drive a nice big SUV.

    1. jzl

      Re: Futures market??

      Nice SUV is an oxymoron.

  2. Gene Cash Silver badge
    Thumb Up

    Hell of a day...

    When you can make even Elon Musk go "wow, damn..."

  3. 2StrokeRider

    A fool and his money....

    1. Sorry that handle is already taken. Silver badge

      Do go on...

    2. werdsmith Silver badge

      Re: A fool and his money....

      A saying often repeated by people with no money.

      1. FuzzyWuzzys
        Facepalm

        Re: A fool and his money....

        "A saying often repeated by people with no money."

        Do explain? My understanding was "A fool..." is an expanded variation of "Buyer beware.".

  4. JeffyPoooh
    Pint

    198,000

    "Tesla promises to build around 50,000 vehicles a year,"

    198,000 / 50,000 = about 4 years.

    Crikey.

    1. Naughtyhorse

      Re: and then some..

      The first car is due off the line in Q4 of 2017...

      and Tesla have yet to hit a production target.

    2. Sorry that handle is already taken. Silver badge

      Re: 198,000

      And now it's at 232,000. This is getting a little bit silly.

      Of course, the deposit's refundable so there's little risk in reserving one now, other than the charge to one's credit card. I guess we'll find out how many of those orders are ultimately completed in a few years...

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge

        Re: 198,000

        "I guess we'll find out how many of those orders are ultimately completed in a few years..."

        True.

        But that still puts $198m in Tesla's corporate account now.

        You can do a lot of with that kind of money even overnight if you have the right setup.

    3. DMH

      Re: 198,000

      He said the factory has in the past been capable of 500,000 per year, and that it would be possible to reach that level again.

      1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

        Re: 198,000

        But surely the appeal of a Tesla is that its

        - Exclusive

        - Expensive

        Isn't Musk shooting himself in the foot if he's planning on selling 500,000 cheap battery cars a year? It's like selling a $50 iPhone (through Amazon), who is the market?

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: 198,000

          Appeal is the same as a BMW, not exactly rare.

          I'm guessing Tesla has been taking a lot more sales from BMW / Audi than from Leafs, Volts and Priuses

        2. Steve Knox

          Re: 198,000

          But surely the appeal of a Tesla is that its

          - Exclusive New Technology

          - Expensive Well-built

          - Stylish

          - Sold by the Steve Jobs of the electric auto industry

          TFTFY

          1. Naughtyhorse

            Re: 198,000

            - Expensive Well-built

            - Stylish

            Trouble with that analysis is that it's based on the cars already produced by tesla, which were slightly more expensive.

            it's like saying the ferrari F12 berlinetta is one hell of a car, so this fiat 500 must be great too.

            both made by fiat

            1. djack

              Re: 198,000

              "it's like saying the ferrari F12 berlinetta is one hell of a car, so this fiat 500 must be great too."

              Not sure what you are trying to imply there as the Fiat 500 is a great car for what it is designed to do. Whilst I wouldn't want to take one anywhere near a motorway, they probably have the Ferrari licked for a day-to-day town-center commute or shopping trip.

              Whilst I agree that the quality of previous Tesla cars doesn't necessarily mean that the new one will be as amazing, they have done enough impressive stuff to deserve a little faith.

          2. jzl

            Re: 198,000

            Musk is nothing like Steve Jobs. Jobs was a salesman.

            Musk is a physicist and an engineer. By all accounts, Musk is involved with - and has a detailed technical understanding of - all aspects of Tesla's technology.

        3. Sherrie Ludwig

          Re: 198,000

          But surely the appeal of a Tesla

          is that it is an electric car, so laughing at petrol prices

          is that Musk has had a pretty good string of great ideas

          is that it is affordable for an electric car, in a company that has built an electric from the ground up, instead of bolting on the electrics to a petrol-burner model

          is that they have been reasonably customer-focused, fixing problems fairly quickly as they arose

      2. oneguycoding

        Re: 198,000

        57 cars an hour? With the right line and parts supply this is just possible.

    4. inmypjs Silver badge

      Re: 198,000

      Tesla's market capitalisation 31.29bn

      Nissan's market capitalisation 37.63bn

      Tesla promises to build around 50,000 vehicles a year,

      Nissan have demonstrated they can build 481,000 vehicles in a month (Oct 2015 I think).

      1. 7layer

        Re: 198,000

        Interesting point of view!

        Tesla produce cars since 2010.

        Nissan produce cars since 1934.

        So it's a very good compare I must say... (not to mention I'm having a Nissan Primera, which I do like cause it's my third one)

    5. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: 198,000

      4 years? Clearly he has no ambition and is building them too fast.

      Morgan once managed a ten year waiting list; if Elon built cars at the same rate as Morgan, I reckon he could stretch the waiting time to 400 years or so...

    6. rhydy

      Re: 198,000

      Where did the 50,000 units per year figure come from? The statements from Musk state that the battery gigafactory and the car production facility are gearing up for 500,000 units per year.

  5. redpawn

    Great looking but...

    My parking space has no power outlet.

    1. Alan Brown Silver badge

      Re: Great looking but...

      "My parking space has no power outlet."

      ...Yet.

    2. DMH

      Re: Great looking but...

      The general idea is that you fit one if you get an electric car. If you have street parking, some councils are looking at fitting sockets to lamp posts and setting up dedicated EV spaces. The other option, that some people do currently with their Tesla, is using Superchargers exclusively.

      1. JeffyPoooh
        Pint

        Re: Great looking but...

        "...fitting sockets to lamp posts..."

        Do the cables lock in at both ends? Otherwise somebody (everybody) will just unplug all the e-cars because it's funny. Find your car has a range of "7" in the morning.

        They'll take off with the cable if it's not tied down. If it's heavy copper, well - copper thieves.

        Has anyone thought this through yet?

        1. jzl

          Re: Great looking but...

          > "Has anybody thought this through yet?"

          No, nobody has. All those people employed by Tesla, Nissan, Renault? Never occurred to any of them. You are literally the first person to consider this in the world.

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Great looking but...

          " ... Do the cables lock in at both ends? ..."

          Yes.

    3. John Bailey

      Re: Great looking but...

      "My parking space has no power outlet."

      And mine doesn't have a hay rack?

      1. jake Silver badge

        Re: Great looking but...

        ""My parking space has no power outlet.""

        "And mine doesn't have a hay rack?"

        Mine have both. They are not exactly exclusive ...

    4. Breen Whitman

      Re: Great looking but...

      I know right. My new house is an older one with just 2 plug outlets in the bedroom.. One for bedside lamp and one for electric blanket.

      But I want to run my clock, charger for my phone, and a TV. One day I'll get a house with those plugs. Till the it'll have to do without.

    5. bazza Silver badge

      Re: Great looking but...

      My country's National Grid hasn't got the capacity to generate or deliver enough electricity to run the nation's cars if they were all electric.

      1. bri

        @ bazza

        Actually, I'd wager that even stronger statement, such as "No country in the world has got the capacity...", is true.

        However, Teslas, Nissan Leafs etc. are only a miniscule percentage of total car numbers, so grids will have a few decades to adapt. In infrastructure terms this isn't a lot though - Germans for example adopted abruptly their Energiewende in 2010 and in 2016 there is almost zero progress in critical north-south power network extension to accomodate massive influx of energy from northern wind parks. And from the "Go" it will take additional ten, fifteen years to actually build something useful. Also, I don't believe that actually anyone understands in full what it means to have really massive increase in electric power consumption. Smart grid demos are always nice, but in practice they don't work (yet).

        Electric cars however, have to overcome additional ideological issue (at least for the time being) - they don't produce exhalations directly, but electricity they use is supplied largely by burning carbon fuels, such as coal and natural gas. In California for example, such sources comprise over 50% of power mix (according to the source of all wisom, Wikipedia). And California is quite a "green" state.

        With sufficient electric car subsidies however, people won't be bothered by such irrelevant technicalities, though.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: @ bazza

          Possible over night capacity. If we are talking 100% takeup, the possibly no. But if we were talking 100% takeup by the customers, I'd assume lots of companies would spring up to provide a service for them. (Biodiesel generators in the gap it would take to build the cars, though 4 years seems more than enough to get some increase in grid capacity)

          1. bri

            Re: @ bazza (@TechnicalBen)

            "...4 years seems more than enough to get some increase in grid capacity..."

            Some maybe, in special cases or in countries where some mandarin comes and just makes land owner sign off the deal or else. Certainly not in Europe, with property transactions, EIA processes, pressure groups negotiations and so on and on taking years. I guess it's the same all over (democratic) world.

            In the free world you have to take into account the fact that despite everyone agrees on some infrastructure being necessary, no one wants it in their backyard. And if they agree, they usually want something for it and on top some concessions that take time to negotiate. Sorry if it sounds patronising (that's not the intention), but I really want to show that things really do take time, often longer that people appreciate.

            As a side note - I don't believe in biodiesel (unless from food production waste, which is only miniscule amount). It is more damaging to the environment than the normal one. It results in destroyed soil, erosion, requires massive amount of fertilisers. This is a brutal, dirty business violating nature. Actually, top soil would need many decades to naturally recover from such (ab)use.

        2. Jeffrey Nonken

          Re: @ bazza

          Unlike fuel for direct fuel-burning vehicles, however, electricity is fungible.

        3. abedarts

          Re: @ bazza

          'but electricity they use is supplied largely by burning carbon fuels, such as coal and natural gas'

          It depends where you live - France's power generation is almost 90% nuclear and most of the rest is hydro.

        4. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: @ bazza

          Last estimate I saw was that the current US grid could support 70% of all transportation miles without needing a single extra power station.

          As an example, I have a Chevrolet Volt. It charges at 3.3kW. I charge my Chevrolet Volt off peak, starting at midnight during the week and any time during the weekend. If my charging adds to the grid peak load it's only the standby Wattage of my EVSE. I'd charge off peak anyway, but it's cheaper for me to do so. Sensible pricing will naturally lead the market to charge away from peak demand.

          The emissions from the required electricity are not a fundamental issue because it's substituting for petroleum-based fuels. Not only are there direct benefits from the substitution, but if plug-in vehicles are successful it will imply the existence of two things: cheap batteries and a massive, controllable demand sink. Both of those would provide substantial benefit to the electricity grid through raising generation efficiency and allowing easier integration of renewables.

          1. frank ly

            Re: @ bazza

            What is the fuel-energy conversion efficiency of a modern all electric car compared to a modern petrol driven car? By that, I mean how much fuel do you need to burn in a power station compared to burning in an IC engine for the car to travel a certain distance.

            I realise that the comparisons are complicated by the fact that power stations can burn 'low quality' fuel so they avoid the refining costs and there are, of course, the transport and infrastructure costs of car fuel distribution. Has anyone done a detailed analysis of this?

            When I start my car on an average UK morning, the first thing I do is turn the heating full on for a good 15 minutes. In the winter, it's front and rear electric defrost for a good 10 minutes and 50% heating/demist all the time. In the summer, I have the aircon running. I have a feeling that these conditions would invalidate the mileage range claims for any electric vehicle.

            1. John Robson Silver badge

              Re: @ bazza

              "The average automobile engine is only about 35% efficient, and must also be kept idling at stoplights, wasting an additional 17% of the energy, resulting in an overall efficiency of 18%.[7] Large stationary electric generating plants have fewer of these competing requirements as well as more efficient Rankine cycles, so they are significantly more efficient than vehicle engines, around 50% "

              Grid losses:

              "Total losses: 1,423.5 MW (2.29% of peak demand)"

              Charging efficiency:

              80-90% (theoretically 92%, but who gets that)

              So even ignoring:

              - Nuke plants

              - Renewables

              - Regenerative braking

              You get 97%*80%*50% ~40% efficiency from an unrefined, centrally delivered fuel as opposed to ~20% for a highly refined and locally distributed fuel.

            2. John Robson Silver badge

              Re: @ bazza

              Sorry - missed this para:

              "When I start my car on an average UK morning, the first thing I do is turn the heating full on for a good 15 minutes. In the winter, it's front and rear electric defrost for a good 10 minutes and 50% heating/demist all the time. In the summer, I have the aircon running. I have a feeling that these conditions would invalidate the mileage range claims for any electric vehicle."

              Err - it's plugged in, so all you need to do is tell it you'll be driving in 15 minutes, and use the mains feed to preheat the car. Easy. No cold running engine either...

            3. Geoff Campbell Silver badge
              Boffin

              Re: Startup consumption

              > When I start my car on an average UK morning

              Your electric car can bring itself up to temperature whilst still plugged into the power supply, either on a timer or on demand from inside the house.

              GJC

            4. Chemist

              Re: @ bazza

              "What is the fuel-energy conversion efficiency of a modern all electric car compared to a modern petrol driven car?"

              Well I look at it like this - just comparing the basic energy per mile for both.

              Tesla S 85kWh for ~250 miles = 1.2MJ/mile (85e3 W *3600 s /250)

              My slightly lower weight but less aerodynamic diesel ( 55mpg measured over the last 1400 miles) = 3MJ/mile. ( 36MJ/L * 4.5 / 55 )

              So it all comes down to electric generation/distribution/charging/discharging losses vs refining/transport losses. The electrical losses are the big variable country-country and indeed station-station with older coal-fired stations being particularly bad and gas, nuclear/wind/solar/hydro increasingly better.

              1. John Brown (no body) Silver badge

                Re: @ bazza

                "So it all comes down to electric generation/distribution/charging/discharging losses vs refining/transport losses."

                Not forgetting all the various processes for creating everything needed too, eg pollution caused by mining the materials to build deep sea drill rigs, or mining and processing the rare earths to make the batteries and motors (sometimes highly dirty and toxic processes).

      2. Seajay#

        Re: Great looking but...

        "My country's National Grid hasn't got the capacity to generate or deliver enough electricity"

        Of course it does. Absolute worst case we just burn all the petrol we would have used but in big, heavy, efficient static power stations. I think we can do much much better than that. Especially because often battery charging can happen at any time of the night so we can wait for a point when there is little demand but a big gust happens to be passing the wind farm.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Great looking but...

          "Especially because often battery charging can happen at any time of the night so we can wait for a point when there is little demand but a big gust happens to be passing the wind farm."

          I'd bet my trip to work on that !

        2. Peter2 Silver badge

          Re: Great looking but...

          "we can wait for a point when there is little demand but a big gust happens to be passing the wind farm."

          Ok, let's have a look at the National Grid generation history and see how often we have low demand and an excess of wind power then.

          http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

          So, we use 30GW worth of power overnight. We nominally have 8GW worth of installed wind capacity. This installed capacity has generated peaks of over 2GW but under 5.5GW for generously 20% of the year and has never, ever generated the nominally installed capacity. The remaining 80% of the year has been delivering under 2GW.

          So, it looks roughly like the times that the times that your wind farms are going to be generating sufficant power to charge car batteries overnight from an excess of power generated from wind farms is going to be approximately "never".

          Over the last week wind has produced less power than coal plants converted to burn trees (sorry, biomass) for the "green" renewable handouts this results in precisely twice. Burning biomass generates less than half what coal plants burning coal produce, which is turn is less than half what nuclear provides 24/7, which is less than half of what is produced by burning gas since gas and gas plants are cheap to build and everybody accepts them to "back up varying outputs from wind farms".

          Usually backups are understood to be secondary fallbacks, rather than generating over fifteen times(!) the output of the supposedly primary wind plants.

      3. jzl

        Re: Great looking but...

        > "My country's National Grid hasn't got the capacity to generate or deliver enough electricity to run the nation's cars if they were all electric."

        Luckily it won't happen overnight and - wow - it's possible to build more capacity. Who'd have thought?

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