Gartner's hype cycle turned upside down to assess Brexit Gartner veep and fellow Mark Raskino has applied the analyst firm's famed Hype Cycle to Brexit. Gartner's Hype Cycle plots technologies' fortunes, asserting that after birth they ascend to a “peak of inflated expectations” before descending into a “trough of disillusionment.” The market eventually figures out what a technology …
Like Trump stating that the day after he becomes Commande in Chief, all crime and violence in the USA will stop.
Really? Are you sure about that?
As for BREXITitious, the diagnosis has been made but the implications of losing an arm and a leg still have not sunk in for many. ergo, we are still on the downward slope. Until we start to see the crappiness of the deal offered by Brussels - Free movement of Labour or 100% tarrifs[1]? What is it to be? we won't hit rock bottom.
[1] It might not be that bad depending who we are negociating with. It is is a german then they will be more pragmatic. If it is a frenchman they'll want to stick it to us just because they can.
Did he actually say he would stop ALL crime? More likely he claimed it would drop with him in office. But here's the thing, murder and all types of violent crime are lower now than they were during the Bush administration. And were lower in Bush's administration than in Clinton's. And were lower in Clinton's administration than they were in Bush I's and Reagan's. Because violent crime and murder in the US peaked several decades ago.
Same with police deaths - those have been declining for at least 50 years, and today being a cop is not a particularly dangerous job. Other jobs like roofer, garbage collector, farmer, truck driver, taxi driver, and a half dozen other jobs are more dangerous than being a police officer.
Trump is setting himself up for an easy success - he would be able to point to declining crime rates and claim it is because of him. If for some reason crime spiked a bit he could still weasel out and say something like "down 50% compared to 15 years ago" or whatever.
Some of us are well past acceptance and in “put on the popcorn“ mode. So much to wait for like the moment the electors realise the bloody nose they gave elites is mostly spray from stabbing their own nuts , they just shuffled the same corrupt pack of elite hyenas.
...and of course watching May destroy Boris and his pirate brexiteers will be irresistible.
Good to see you're spending your time wisely. The rest of us are busy building our businesses now we don't have to worry about French farmers when negotiating trade deals.
In any situation like this, it won't be quite as good as the winners promised, nor as bad as the losers threatened.
At least you have a ready made excuse for every setback you suffer in the next 5 years.
Don't be so sensitive. It was comment about the resilience of people and their ability to bounce back in the face of adversity. "car" analogies are a favourite here. I very much doubt the poster even gave a thought to Nice. The vast majority of the world heard about, it were shocked and outraged over it, and a week later barely give it a thought unless it comes up on the news again.
Grief is an odd thing and doesn't have much of a long term effect on those not directly involved. Yes, it's still a shocking event to me, even now, but I'm not constantly thinking about or wondering if something I say might be taken the "wrong way" by someone else.
The shocks have happened yet, with cameron failing to exercise article 50.
The next shocks will be
- Article 50
- The EU blocking EEA membership without free movement.
- The first of the large companies to announce closing/downgrading their UK office.
- The formal announcement of recession.
- Scotland announcing the independence vote.
- Scotland's independence (I am 50-50) on that actually happening.
Working in tech industry, where projects gets shelved at the first sign of trouble, I know what a hole in the business any project delays can cause.
And don't get me started on overall economic confidence, and the willingness to commit to major purchases either as consumers or as businesses!! (e.g. It will be interesting to see the effect on this years' new car sales when they get reported; the building trade has taken a hit already, property-based funds - especially commercial property - stalled their trading in the light of the uncertainty, etc., etc.).
So even if we recover to a similar level of demand after - ooh - let's say a 12 months pause, that is still a 12-month dip / major hole in our business and household budgets.
For businesses that only gets reported at the end of their financial year we're still c. 9 months away from any real kind of reaction results.
That and the hole in people's pay bonuses, commission or dividends, willingness to spend vs. save every penny just in case, will mean an overall drop in consumer activity.
And that spells recession for a while.
So tax take drops, which puts a further dampener on any recovery - let alone whatever worse trade deal we may or may not be able to negotiate.
*sigh*
The only light at the end of the tunnel is our currency can devalue (which we had already), and ultra-low interest rates mean the cost of borrowing & mortgages are low.
But I think Gartner have called it correctly: long-term it all means a drop in overall activity, which ultimately means household buying power for everyone is a little worse than it was a year ago.
As they say, be careful what you wish for.
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