What's Brexit? How Tech UK tore up its plans after June 23 Leaders of many British tech firms were less than thrilled to hear that the UK had voted to leave the European Union. “I was shocked and horrified,” says Kate Craig-Wood, managing director of hosting firm Memset, who we spoke before the June 23 vote. Her comments were echoed by others. Mike Laven, chief executive of fintech …
In the longer term this might turn out to be a good deal for the UK. At worst WTO terms with the EU, but a whole host of free trade deals with very large growing economies, including China, South Korea and the common wealth nations. The US has also hinted at a deal. We will also control immigration - so the Government can find ways of speeding up entry for IT trained workers who are in demand. I suspect that WTO tariffs are going to be a big problem for the German car industry who sell 20% of all their cars here. Cars are at 10% unlike most goods that are at 3%. That puts a lot of pressure on the Germans to offer us some sort of deal without us having to sign up to anything we don't want. Alternatively they can refuse a deal and watch their car industry go bust....
On my holidays thanks to the pounds wonderful performance, since we got control (apparently).
Also selling ARM means all the profits now go to Japan not the UK, how is the promise of 3000 new jobs (which they don't have to keep) better than losing a world leading company?
If this is a sign of our wonderful future going forward, we are up shit creek without a paddle
The sale of ARM was not related to brexit, that sale would have happened either way but now we have a pledge of increased jobs in the UK for ARM. In terms of economy, having more people employed tends to be more important than having fat cats shove more money into over-inflated bank accounts.
The weakened Pound is due to market speculation that UK might leave the single market, speculation proves to be wrong 99% and I doubt this will be the 1%. As such, the Pound will likely recover once brexit negotiations are done which in turn would result in a boom as the Pound will then try to return back to it's roughly normal levels. It's also worth mentioning that while the weakened pound maybe bad for some businesses, for others it's actually a boon as it makes the UK more competitive on prices Internationally too.
Haven't you noticed, we've already voted to leave the single market?
*Strictly speaking*, no we haven't; we voted to leave the EU.
We could theoretically stay within the single market whilst being outside the EU - but that would involve us signing up to basically everything people said they wanted to get away from, whilst simultaneously giving up our rebate and our rights to vote on EU legislation - the worst of all worlds.
Vic.
That's optimistic ball-gazing - the pound is unlikely to recover to "normal", i.e. pre-Brexit, levels.
You only have to look at the long-term currency Hedge rates to get a feel for what the money markets think will happen. It's clear the GBP will be worth c. 7%-10% less than pre-Brexit (& yes, I'm already aware that speculation had already begun before the announcement in Feb. USD rate was 1.6-1.5 in late 2015, dropped & hovered to 1.4 around the announcement, and is now more steady at around 1.3.
So the net is GBP will be worth, say, 8% less. And whilst that will help our exporters a bit, don't forget their raw materials & goods will cost more unless 100% produced in the UK, AND the commensurate uncertainty that we've introduced into Europe will lower the Euro, too, so would effectively cancel most of our export benefits, certainly into Europe.
Long-term, it means a large part of our raw materials, and anything supplied by Global companies, who price their costs in USD, will cost 8% more, which will have to be passed on to us, the consumers.
Let's be generous and say the it's only a 5% hit, to account for purely domestic sourcing and EU imports / Euro weakness. Our wages won't rise due to the prolonged employment uncertainty, and so the overall effect is we will ALL be 5% poorer.
Personally, many of my customers have delayed IT projects, and focused their time on doing some housekeeping, which means my business loses a massive chunk of revenue, most of which won't recover, it just shifts everything else out, and so hits my pay packet directly, and hard, dammit.
So of course I'm mightily pissed off because that hurts me directly with a double-whammy of short-term penury and higher cost of living long-term.
My household will be OK, though, the IT industry isn't too badly paid, so we'll just have to tighten a little. But it'll be the worst-off who will suffer most from that kind of squeeze, and that hurts my social conscience.
"Also selling ARM means ...." Does anyone else here seriously believe that the ARM deal was conceived, negotiated, done and dusted between the Referendum result and the announcement last week? Anyone? ... No. i didn't think so.
Far too many commentators seem to be very eager for the UK to fail just so they can say "I told you so".
Where are all those high-paid financial sector workers going to buy their status-symbol luxury cars from? Japan? US? Korea? India? Meanwhile even Germany can set up deals to sell more cars in China or other countries... if "menaced", it could also move some production sites away from Britain. German does protect its workers, when needed.
Britain can still favour some immigrants with specific skills if it likes so - the problem may be its companies access to the EU market, if deals are not reciprocal.
EU is not going to let GB have all the advantage of EU free market and free circulation without any of the disadvantages - because it will mean the collapse of the whole EU (because others will follow quickly), and Germany can't afford it.
May wishes about it are just "wishful thinking".
Also the EU labour market is a key economic driver for us. Everyone looking for some kind of immigration reform is missing the point that we are incredibly short if junior/mid level engineers - just getting these to apply through a points based immigration system is going to be a nightmare. They are going to go to places that are attractive and easy to get into, like the uk was until 23rd June.
Perhaps you may have a point. I just fail to see how the UK continuing to pay for access to the EU, even more bureaucracy for our business people (think import/export paperwork), potentially the same deal vis-a-vis immigration, and absolutely no say in euro rules; could be seen as an improvement to matters.
Perhaps if people were less blinded by xenophobic, anti EU propaganda spouted by our 'independent press', and actually took part in european democracy, sending candidates to the EU parliament with an agender other than causing problems (see the UKIP euro voting records!!), instead of the red nosed size 26 footed clowns, that we duely elected.
Then perhaps all this uncertainty might have been avoided.
Interestingly where were all these Bremain business leaders when Boris was recruiting the usual suspects (Mike Ashley etal) to back his case for Brexit?
Goes to show turkeys do indeed vote for Christmas
Rant Over...
PS Any idea where Nige has gone these days? Answer: he's still creaming it in, on the brussels gravy train ;) Anyone else smiling wryly?
@ HAL-9000
"Perhaps if people were less blinded by xenophobic, anti EU propaganda spouted by our 'independent press',"..."Then perhaps all this uncertainty might have been avoided."
Perhaps a rigged vote by bullies was a bad idea. Claiming the country to be doomed (and Osborne stating he will damage the country if we give the wrong answer) is not going to inspire confidence. The PM claiming to stick around whatever the result but only willing to negotiate remain but not leave so as to cause uncertainty may also have been a bad move. The remain propaganda against a little England (by the little England remain camp afraid of the world) about gov and civil service incompetence at negotiation or running our own country may give people jitters too.
Oddly the remain camp inflicting self harm and then pointing to the wounds while shouting 'see see' is not impressive. Nor should we be proud of them.
"PS Any idea where Nige has gone these days? Answer: he's still creaming it in, on the brussels gravy train ;) Anyone else smiling wryly?"
He is where he needs to be. He was frozen out of the brexit negotiations even after being the reason for a referendum and one of the few sources on the EU with a clue, so he is still the MEP, and will be until the democratic vote is honoured. No matter how much Junker may hate it.
I too face palmed every time a Bremain person spoke, you are correct their campaign should have focused on the positives, been more honest etc. That is indeed quite possibly why so many voted the way they did (anti-establishment protest, fear of foreigners, bunting fetishists or some such). As for rigged, you'll need to explain that one, does it lurk in the conspiracy web alongside other choice bits of Ickeism.
I was merely retorting to another smug git who was trying to tell me 'there there, stiff upper lip, and everything will be alright in the end' nonsense; When it quite patently won't be. The shit will land once we start article 50 in motion; then we'll see how promising the future looks. Try to remeber it was Camoron's idea to call the referendum, he could have left it as a policy promise for the next general election. No need to rush in where angles fear. Unfortunately Dave's luck finally ran out, and now he sits on the back benches where the feckless tosser always wanted to be.
As for Farage (add Bojo, DDavis, etc), (they are) he is a lying, opportunistic, greedy, manipilative, xenophobic, windbag; So full of excrement I wonder why his tears donot stink. Unfortunately he is still in Brussels with his begging bowl, when someone with purpose could have been there instead. That man of the people schtick, fuck off, I've met him; if your idea of the people is a bunch of toffee nosed, public school old boys with cotton socks, and silver spoons in their mouths, then yes he is a man of the 'people'.
The best bit of course, soon we will be USA's bitch number one, and we'd better like it, cause we're gonna have TTIP super max, with all the bits our european neighbours wouldn't even consider. I wonder how trade negociations with America are going for Anthony (Boris) Johnson these days, shouldn't take long. It's not like he upset anyone there is it (fortunately he'll be a token figurehead, and technocrats from whitehall will do the real deals)
@ HAL-9000
"I too face palmed every time a Bremain person spoke"
I dont think either of the official campaigns did us proud. Both were rubbish. However the nearest to an honest campaign was UKIP. Nigel has done a lot for the country like him or not. We finally got the promised referendum of over a decade.
"As for rigged, you'll need to explain that one, does it lurk in the conspiracy web alongside other choice bits of Ickeism."
It was pretty blatant. The very people who want a specific result (remain) and knowing how many people can sign up to register miraculously lose the server 1 hr before deadline and the response is to extend by 2 days and up the campaigning. The PM refusing to discuss any idea of leaving but will discuss remaining with the EU (he is the only one with any power). Add to that insisting he will stay to negotiate thereby stopping anyone from having a plan (nobody has the authority). The BoE offering only one sided opinions of heavy bias which were called out publicly. Using tax payer money to campaign for the 'right' answer. And of course the punishment budget which had no factual reason beyond threat. I use the term rigging but various other words can be used for such abuse of the electorate.
"I was merely retorting to another smug git who was trying to tell me 'there there, stiff upper lip, and everything will be alright in the end' nonsense"
Must admit that irritates me as much as the 'we are all doomed' claims. What we do now is up to us, yet people are still hung up on the EU or avoiding the result of the referendum.
"Unfortunately he is still in Brussels with his begging bowl, when someone with purpose could have been there instead."
He is there with purpose. No other MP represents me there. And that isnt his begging bowl, if they dont want him paid by the EU then we just need to leave. Its simple. He is doing the only thing left to him to hold them all to account. If he had the power to call article 50 he wouldnt need to be there. He cant do that and has been refused for the negotiations.
"The best bit of course, soon we will be USA's bitch number one, and we'd better like it, cause we're gonna have TTIP super max"
We would be the US's bitch by staying. Obama did come to tell us how to vote remember, and it wasnt to leave the EU into the welcoming arms of Obama. The good news is he is on his way out and so doesnt matter. He isnt even able to push the deal with the EU. Yet on the vote we suddenly got interest from the US, not bad when the EU moves at a snail pace (we might even get a china deal before the EU does).
As for TTIP it is an interesting problem for remain. If we leave we get to choose. If we remain we do whatever the EU says-
The EU is a dead duck and needs money. They decide to go with it and we are stuck with it enforced upon us.
or-
The French wont stand for it and will veto any deal. As such we cant get our trade deal because an EU member will block it.
Of course it is Schroedinger's trade agreement at the moment because nobody knows if it is dead or alive. I thought the EU was ment to be good at this bit?
@ codejunky
Bollox, I thought you or someone might have been doing a David Icke. Get real! Do you honestly expect me not to laugh while you rattle on about how milliions of law abiding Brexit voters were denied their right to vote by engineered travel delays, freak weather events, drought, road blocks or whatever.
When do you fucking morons understand that little Brittain was only big Britain because she was a low tax/regulation gateway to the eurozone. Outside the eurozone we will soon find out who our 'friends' are, who calls the shots, and how high we jump. It simply hasn't happened yet.
@ HAL-9000
"Do you honestly expect me not to laugh while you rattle on about how milliions of law abiding Brexit voters were denied their right to vote by engineered travel delays, freak weather events, drought, road blocks or whatever."
I dont think the server controlled those but if you want to believe that its up to you.
"When do you fucking morons understand that little Brittain was only big Britain because she was a low tax/regulation gateway to the eurozone"
Actually we quickly became Great Britain not Little England as George Osborne changed his tune when he went to wall st. It amused us voting leave as we have been saying that for some time now.
"Outside the eurozone we will soon find out who our 'friends' are, who calls the shots, and how high we jump. It simply hasn't happened yet."
We didnt know before? We were too shielded from the real world? That big scary one we should run and hide from? No thanks.
"He is where he needs to be. He was frozen out of the brexit negotiations even after being the reason for a referendum and one of the few sources on the EU with a clue, so he is still the MEP, and will be until the democratic vote is honoured. No matter how much Junker may hate it."
He's still an MEP. And the democratically elected government is dealing with the exit - I'm not sure how you can say someone who isn't an elected member of the House of Commons (part of the democracy deficit argument) could possibly contribute? He isn't a member of the government, he's not a member of the House of Commons, he isn't qualified as an expert in economics or anything else - on what basis is that being frozen out?
@ ATG
"he's not a member of the House of Commons, he isn't qualified as an expert in economics or anything else - on what basis is that being frozen out?"
I have nothing against that view. I do think he is one of the better knowledgeable people on the EU and could contribute but as you say he is not elected here. He is the one who made the referendum happen and ran an actual leave campaign while the official one shamed us. But I feel the point must be made due to the popular claim he ran away, which is a popular bit of bull, and of course he can only contribute by being an MEP until we leave.
oh dear where are all the workers going to come from to do all the sh1t jobs! All the UK workers who couldn't be bothered to do said sh1t jobs are going to have a bit of a rude awakening as they'll have to do them as there won't be anyone else! I look forward to seeing bus loads of the great unwashed out picking veg and flowers early in the mornings rather than the eastern Europeans that have been doing it.
Careful what you wish for
"Perhaps you may have a point. I just fail to see how the UK continuing to pay for access to the EU, even more bureaucracy for our business people (think import/export paperwork), potentially the same deal vis-a-vis immigration, and absolutely no say in euro rules; could be seen as an improvement to matters"
Are you sure being in the EEA would mean more paperwork? That would defeat the point of a free market.
The gross amount would be lower, (hopefully) the net amount would be similar to the present situation. The difference is instead of having urban regeneration schemes and scientists funded by the tyrants at the EU, we would be able choose to spend that money on the NHS or tax cuts for the rich.
We wouldn't be bound by as many laws as present. And the English and Welsh people obviously believe that we can trust our own government with those needing replacing. Contrary to popular belief EEA members do get consulted on those EU laws that they will need to abide by, however they do not get the final decision. However, since we are mostly represented by UKIP MEPs I don't see this as any change.
Given that our government keeps watering down or vetoing laws on the environment or regulating banks and such, the EU will be far better off without us having the disproportionate influence Thatcher negotiated for us.
Since the people have decided that the UK government will better represent their interests than the EU government, then my opinion is that England and Wales should return to the EFTA and remain in the EEA. The peoples of Scotland, Gibraltar and NI should be given the choice as to whether they wish to join England and Wales or not. And if their preference is Europe rather than England (which I would think sensible), then England and Wales could quit the UK and no article 50 would be needed. (So you might have Britain = England and Wales, UK = united kingdom of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, which would solve the UK/Britain/GB problem on drop down menus)
> and actually took part in european democracy, sending candidates to the EU parliament with an agender other than causing problems
That would be the EU parliament that actually has naff all powers ? It really really is nothing like the UK parliament where the elected government actually has a say in things. In teh EU, direction is set by the non-elected commissioners (in fact, a required attribute seems to be that your own country rejected you - cf Neil Kinnock). Then the various committees (all staffed by non-elected career committee members) get to work on implementation for the high-level policies - and bear in mind that these are people who's jobs depend on coming to the conclusion that "new regulations are needed". When all this non-elected bureaucracy has finalised things, only then does it go to the EU parliament for rubber stamping.
And rubber stamping it is. There are only 2 options available - rubber stamp it or reject it in it's entirety. Usually (for various political reasons), outright rejection si not an option - so it gets rubber stamped regardless of how badly it smells.
About the worst the EU parliament can do is write a "strongly worded letter" which the recipients can ignore - or more likely, wipe their backsides with.
We have been trying to fix the EU from the inside for several decades. Those in a position to fix things have made it really really really clear that they are not going to fix it - instead they intend taking it further and further down the road to total political and financial integration - ie a "United States of Europe" with one currency, one set of laws, one set of tax rules, ... We've seen with Greece (amongst other things) just how well that's working out when you deliberately ignore the rules on joining the club and then carry on as if nothing was wrong.
So, you are on a boat, the iceberg is clear to see dead ahead. You've pleaded with the captain to change course, but he is adamant that not only is he not changing course - he is going to increase speed. There comes a point where you realise that he is going to crash as hard as he can into that iceberg - so do you stay on board and keep trying to change his mind, or do you decide that the best place is to be on another boat when the crash happens ?
I voted for us to be on that other boat. It might not be as big or as well fitted out, but after the crash, it'll sure as hell seem much better than the carnage that'll be left. Perhaps there'll be a mutiny and others will realise the seriousness of the situation - especially when they realise we're not sinking as everyone had said we would. Perhaps when the captain has been kicked off and sane people are in charge, we can talk about working with what the EU should have been (and was when we joined).
If you look at nothing else, watch this video>.
And see this for a view on how well the Euro is working for Greece.
I'm not sure what Crash it is you're talking about - what event or circumstances do you see happening that will cause such a thing? The EU has (despite its admittedly many flaws) fudged its way through several decades of peace and prosperity, and most at its centre seem to me to be focused on continuing that strategy.
"Germans to offer us some sort of deal without us having to sign up to anything we don't want. Alternatively they can refuse a deal and watch their car industry go bust...."
Could someone please explain this BREXIT argument to me? German car manufacturer sell more cars in a day to India/China than they do in a year in the UK. Even if the UK get no trade deal with the EU, BMW et all can still sell to the UK according to WTO rules. Sure the cars will all be 20% more expensive but I'm guessing that then *all* cars will be 20% more expensive, not just the German ones...
It's comical to think that the German car industry is in any way dependent on the UK. Probably only 5% of German GDP is dependent on the UK. 45% of UK GDP is dependent on the EU, of course...
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"Could someone please explain this BREXIT argument to me? German car manufacturer sell more cars in a day to India/China than they do in a year in the UK"
Ok it's not the Brexit argument, just one of the many reason people voted leave.
The German car industry makes a nice chunk of money from the UK market, it doesn't matter that it makes more elsewhere, the important bit is the UK is a profitable market. If the EU and Britain failed to come to an agreement and imports were introduced on their cars, it would mean they either have to reduce the cost, or add it on to their already premium prices. Adding the cost on would almost definitely lose significant sales, as car prices have risen rapidly due to people switching to PCP deals and not realising how expensive the car is.
Meanwhile the UK government is free to cut deals with other countries and their car manufacturing business. If we look at Korea and China, they're already in the UK market with cheap but dull cars. While the snobs of the automobile world will likely stay second hand because they love the badge and people that want an enjoyable car experience will ignore them, the rest of the purchasing population will switch their PCP deals to this new market; especially if the UK removes import duty in return for building some cars in the UK.
Over time the increase in money will allow the Asian competitors to create cheap, reliable and enjoyable cars that the British public are loving. They then move into Europe, India etc and take big holes out of the German car market. VW will not allow this.
Also, this is an article saying companies that aren't employing British workers are looking to move from the UK so they can continue not hiring British workers. I don't see much reason to be sad here.
"...allow the Asian competitors to create cheap, reliable and enjoyable cars that the British public are loving. They then move into Europe..."
In case it's escaped your notice those Asian competitors are producing cars in Britain now. They're doing so because that gives them an EU manufacturing base.
You're right in that they'll move into Europe. They'll move into Europe because they'll want to continue having an EU manufacturing base.
The odd thing is that it seems that the areas where they currently have their factories voted for them to leave. This will be the second UK car industry destroyed by its workers (the native industry was pretty-well banjaxed in the '70s). What makes you think anyone will want to provide us with a third?
Nissan in Sunderland is about 1/3 of the UK car industry. But it's not just Nissan, it's the Renault-Nissan Alliance, which turned down a French Government effort in December of 2015 to have them move their factory to France. Now they may change their mind if TM and co don't have a free trade/common market deal.
Did you work in the UK car industry in the 1970s? I did. It wasn't the workers that designed the Austin Maestro. It wasn't the workers who didn't have a clue what to do when the Japanese started shipping cars with factory-fitted radios. It wasn't the workers who saddled Jaguar with Austin-Morris management, who didn't understand the idea of a quality car, let alone luxury. Of course the strikes didn't help, but they were a symptom of under-investment, poor management and political meddling, not the downfall of the industry.
It's no surprise Britain is the main importer of German cars. Britain is the only large European country which no longer have its own car industry (but Tata-owned Land Rover and Jaguar, both niche players). France with PSA and Renault, and Italy with FIAT, still have one, and are strong sellers in their respective markets, offsetting German cars sales locally.
Moreover the fact that brands like Mini are now in the hands of Germany manufacturer, and Ford UK is a subsidiary of Germany based Ford Europe, if these are counted into "German" cars they will rise the sales numbers a lot.
I would say that Britons are heavily dependent on the German car industry, and the EU one. Sure, there are Japanese and Korean ones also - just let's see if the British will all buy Hyundai, especially the rich ones <G>.
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"In the longer term this might turn out to be a good deal for the UK."
@AC: I raise you the following quote from John Maynard Keynes' A Tract on Monetary Reform...
"But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again."
I suspect that to fully embrace trade deals with the wider world we may need a nearly complete turn over of currently operating small to medium businesses. Why radically rip out your existing dna and re-engineer your processes completely when you can simply operate in Poland, Spain, Hungary, wherever?
I hope that I am wrong on this one, seriously.
The Tramp: I'm suspecting I and all my cohort will be paying for this one.
>>Alternatively they can refuse a deal and watch their car industry go bust....
You say this with a smug air of power, while it's obviously true that people in the UK do buy a lot of cars from Germany, the reverse direction is actually more true, the UK sells more cars to the EU than anywhere else, in fact it's over 10% of our exports, if you think that we can somehow use our purchasing power as some kind of zero tariff lever, then (by your logic) this puts us in a very weak bargaining position as we depend far more on the EU for our car industry than they do on ours.
> [Fairsail] He wants to hire more EU nationals as developers, partly due to their high quality, all done partly because “there are nowhere near enough British skilled people”.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/fairsail
Total number of employees 51-200.
Lets look to see what type of employees they want: http://www.fairsail.com/working-at-fairsail/
4 entire roles available... (2 developer, 2 tester)
Nowhere near enough British skilled people? I suspect there are more developers than the entirety of his company currently looking for work.
Here's a Senior Developer role: https://fairsailrecruit.secure.force.com/hr/fRecruit__ApplyJob?vacancyNo=VN092
"You’ll be an integral part of the agile[...] embracing the force.com (SFDC) platform and play a key role in the development of one of the UK’s leading force.com solutions. If you don’t possess force.com experience you’ll need to have an appetite for it. "
Hmm... so the experts they need don't need experience in the primary product they develop with.
This has nothing to do with quality or skill levels.
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