New UK trade deals would not compensate for loss of single market membership The UK could lose out on a 4 per cent boost to gross domestic product (GDP) if it was no longer a member of the EU single market, with particular repercussions for the financial services industry, according to an influential think tank. The 4 per cent figure is based on the UK defaulting to membership of the World Trade …
The IFS are part of the gravy train that has kept the status quo for so long now. Along with government, major banks, chambers of commerce etc. They have all been blatantly pro remain.
They lost. get over it and stop the scaremongering.
Britain can and will be "great" again and all this doom and gloom ain't helping one bit.
"Of course it won't, but prancing around saying "look, it's failing, we told you so, hahahaha" will certainly *reduce* it."
Not sure why you got downvoted for that. That is exactly how the sheep in the stock markets work. Rumours and hints of rumours regularly cause fluctuations in the stick market. Downbeat "forecasts" are guaranteed to cause downward market fluctuations. And we all know how accurate economic forecasts are.
An interesting observation on the radio the other day. Economists are like fortune tellers but with less glitz and poorer accuracy :-)
Given that the stock market is purely based on the "perceived" value of companies, wouldn't you agree that negative perception of a country by a bunch of moaning fuckers who can't stand a fair and legitimate democratic outcome is likely to have a material effect on said country.
Or are you going to pretend otherwise as it doesn't suit your argument.
A margin of one in fifty when so many lies were told is legitimate?
Whether leave meant moving back to the EFTA or quitting the whole thing was never made clear.
The Norway model was often quoted. So if that is what over 1 in 25 leave voters wanted, then there is no mandate to leave the EEA.
Dragging Scotland and NI out against their wishes is democratic?
The only sensible way forward is another referendum for England and Wales giving three choices.
Remain in the EU
Move to the EFTA
Leave the EU and the EEA
It should be preferential and made clear that should the result be other than remain, then the other parts of the UK will get to decide whether they wish to join us.
In the referendum under Wilson people voted to remain in a Common Market, not the EU.
Politicians at the time promised there would be no loss of Sovereignty as this was only for Trade.
If people had been told then that the trading union of the Common Market would become a political European Union over-ruling British Law and policies then the overwhelming vote would have been to leave that Common Market.
The idea that this country is best run for its inhabitants by another country, or by a political organisation with a vastly different idea of personal freedom, would have been ridiculed.
"If people had been told then that the trading union of the Common Market would become a political European Union over-ruling British Law and policies then the overwhelming vote would have been to leave that Common Market."
Up to this point I'm with you. I'd go further. The Maastricht and Lisbon treaties should have been ratified (or not) on the basis of basis of referenda in each of the countries, binding referenda with sensible majority levels set appropriate to the fact that they'd have been overturning the status quo. No change without substantial agreement in each country and none of this "keep voting till you get the answer we want" nonsense. On that basis we might still have had the status quo and if not it would have been something different to what we have now.
However we got what we got and we now have to think whether jumping blindly out of it is the most sensible thing to do from an economic perspective. I don't think it is. I think it's going to turn out to have been a very bad decision for most people including those who voted leave and kids like my grandchildren who didn't even get to vote.
"a political organisation with a vastly different idea of personal freedom"
The EU's idea of personal freedom does indeed seem to be vastly different from that propounded by recent Home Secretaries of both major parties. Vastly better in my view.
This is often mentioned. You do know there was a previous referendum to leave the EU, right? And people voted to stay in. If it was that bad to have joined it...
That is not correct. The previous referendum in 1975 concerned remaining in the common market, or EEC. That was useful, if not perfect, and I would be happy for the UK to remain in it if it existed today.
The EU, created by the treaty of Maastricht in 1992, extended by the treaty of Lisbon in 2007, is a very different beast. It's a political and monetary union, not a purely economic one, and we were given no choice about joining (by John Major) or remaining (by Tony Blair, despite his election promise of a referendum) because both knew from opinion polls that it would have been rejected. That is what Brexit voted to leave.
"Given that the stock market is purely based on the "perceived" value of companies, wouldn't you agree that negative perception of a country by a bunch of moaning fuckers who can't stand a fair and legitimate democratic outcome is likely to have a material effect on said country."
Not at all. That's not how the stock market works. The traders don't give a rats arse about the opinion of most normal people. Indeed, they thrive on knowing a bit more than your average joe. You really think a little opinoning about Brexit will affect the stock market more than actual economic prospects?
"Britain can and will be "great" again..."
Would you like to explain how that can happen with an economy in the shitter, prices going up, and no-one in their right mind willing to trade with, and/or invest in the country?
The sooner people get their heads out of their asses, and realise that brexit is a horrible idea, the better.
This has become distressingly overused by Brexiters.Some things are so gross one shouldn't 'get over' them. Hitler becomes German Chancellor 'Get over it'. Stalin launches Great Purge 'Get over it'. Japan attacks Pearl Harbor 'Get over it'. Just a few example to indicate how inane this response is.
Phil O'Sophical,
When a car full of my kids is being steered towards a cliff by the Nigel Farages of this world, I'd rather try to wrestle the wheel away from him and force a change direction rather than watch people like you postulate on how we should "make a success" of the mangled wreckage.
Brexit, as is clear on these threads, is driven by people who have a romantic view of a fictional Britain which can be made "great again" by breaking our relationship with our closest allies. This is utter bollocks, with more than a hint of xenophobia thrown in, all oiled by decades of breakfast bullshit spouted from the tabloids.
This is not how our children's future should be decided. They are far more outward looking than their elders, and they won't thank you for being driven off a cliff.
Phil O'Sophical,
When a car full of my kids is being steered towards a cliff by the Nigel Farages of this world, I'd rather try to wrestle the wheel away from him and force a change direction rather than watch people like you postulate on how we should "make a success" of the mangled wreckage.
And I'd agree with you, except that the man at the wheel is Jean-Claude Juncker and he's the one wilfully ignoring all the signs about the cliff because it's his car and he'll be damned if he'll let anyone else tell him how or where to drive it no matter who's inside. In that case I'd probably push my kids out & jump after them, in the hope that we'd have a slightly better chance than remaining in it as we go over the edge.
Farage is just sitting in his MG with a beer observing "well, I wouldn't drive over the edge, ye daft bugger", he's irrelevant.
Brexit, as is clear on these threads, is driven by people who have a romantic view of a fictional Britain which can be made "great again" by breaking our relationship with our closest allies. This is utter bollocks, with more than a hint of xenophobia thrown in, all oiled by decades of breakfast bullshit spouted from the tabloids.
I'm really tired of the remainers characterising anyone they don't understand as racist/xenophobic fools, because that is utter bollocks. I was born before the UK joined the EEC, I've been an expat living outside the UK, in the EEC/EU, for many years, so many that I no longer have a vote in the UK. The individual countries are great places to live, and the common economic ground of the EEC helped build prosperity for all of us, but I've seen how bad the EU is first-hand. I see the rising anger in the people of those countries at the damage the EU is doing to their economic lives. Unlike the EEC, the EU fills no actual need, except the desire by politicians to control everything, to flatter their vanity by "leaving a legacy", and they are driving Europe to a very dangerous place, politically and economically. I fully support Brexit, not from some desire to rewind Britain to an impossible, non-existent past, or because of some imagined hatred of foreigners, but as a way to regain control of our own lives, and hopefuly to encourage an end to EU empire-building before it's too late.
This is not how our children's future should be decided. They are far more outward looking than their elders, and they won't thank you for being driven off a cliff.
And I sincerely believe that Brexit is the first step in securing that outward-looking future for them.
""You lost. It's happening.
Get over it."
Thing is, you irreverent anonymous fuckwit, is that we have all lost. Yes, even "winners" like you."
My look whose a big internet hardman, You got to love these remainers, of course the chances of your having the plums to say that to someone's face without wetting yourself are zero.
"You lost. It's happening."
Everyone lost, including folks who got the result they wanted. Savings and assets are all worth a lot less, rent will go up to compensate, tax receipts have already gone down so all that "extra" money will be used to fill the widening hole in the balance sheet. The only folks "getting over it" are leaving the country and taking their money with them.
Tom,
You are as well entitled to your thoughts as I am to mine.
I seem to recall that several large organisations that were basically saying 'if you lot vote to leave, our company will too...' which hasn't come to pass has it?
How many companies do you know of that see the positive side of the exit vote?
I don't know what the outcomes of the vote will be, I doubt you do with much certainty either eh?
Also the 'markets' seem to have rebounded from the 100% guaranteed calamity eh?
As to me 'getting my head out of my derriere' who gave you the right to metaphorically tell a signifcant percentage of fellow commentards that they are wrong and you are right?
What evidence do you have to support your bold claim, re the ecomony being in the shitter? Sure there are many elements that could be better, but I suspect that many of our French, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, Bulgarian etc cousins wouldn't mind having their economies as 'in the shitter' as ours eh?
Ooi voting to remain would have suited my direct family and nascent business better than the exit vote.
If the vote had have been to remain I would have been fine with that, it's called democracy you know, chill out dude, the world will continue turning you know!
Regards,
Jay.
"What evidence do you have to support your bold claim, re the ecomony being in the shitter? "
Have you visited xe.com for example in the last few weeks?
Compare the £ to against anything and you will see the HUGE drops.
Against to my countries currency, it reached the level when the terrorist attack happened in 2005.
I do remember the exact level, cause we swapped over more than 10K. to start our new life here.
You think the Bank of England changed the interest rate to be 0.25% was a coincident? The next thing that will start falling like hell is the housing market and that will hurt us badly!
Compare the £ to against anything and you will see the HUGE drops.
It goes up and down fairly regularly against the dollar. 2:1 in 2009, 1.4:1 in 2009, that was a worse fall than recent weeks, and it came back.
Against the euro it's at about the same level now as 2013, same is true against the Yen. It's no big deal. Over the past many years I've sometimes made 10% on conversions that I couldn't avoid, sometimes lost 10%.
The next thing that will start falling like hell is the housing market and that will hurt us badly!
Why? Absolute house prices are really only a problem for people entering or leaving the market. If you sell a house for 200K and the one you want to buy is 200K the actual price doesn't matter, could be 100K or 300K. UK house prices are very overheated at the moment, a drop would be a good thing for people trying to enter the market.
@Phil O'Sophical
"Absolute house prices are really only a problem for people entering or leaving the market"
They're also a problem for anyone who still has a mortgage - just because the bottom has fallen out of the value of your single biggest asset doesn't mean that the loan you took out to buy it goes away too. Negative equity is a nasty situation to find yourself in.
"Negative equity is a nasty situation to find yourself in."
Only if you want or need to move. Other than the sense of injustice that you paid £200K for a house now worth £100K, if you're not planning on selling before it's paid off, it's not a problem. Unless wages also go down in real terms and you can't keep up the repayments.
7layer,
I am well aware of that, quite a few economists (can't remember specifics, can't check it now as I am current making wardrobes) have stated that on a trade weighted analysis, sterling has been over valued for a while.
As a fellow commentard has pointed out, a Y% shift in GBP/name_of_currency DOES NOT necessarily translate into a Y% change in End-user pricing, business and economics is a bit more complex (and occasionally subtle/counter-intuitive than that).
Methinks the BoE was to 'wave a flag' for positivity and optimism, which in principle I think is a good thing, I think the actual rate change will achieve less than not much however.
Also do you genuinely believe that as over a few months the pound has dropped by not significant amount that the whole country is completely cattle-trucked and we'll all be digging up random roots from public parks and eating grass by the end of the year?
What do you think of the various French and German Ministers who have made interesting and pragmatic statements of late, why would they do that I wonder?
Ooi my former career was Risk Consulting (NOT H&S!!), one of my favourite topics is the law of unintended consequences, we have an 'interesting' few years ahead of us!
The housing market is already absurdly cream-crackered, principally because homes are seen as an easy way to generate wealth (whilst actually stuffing the lives of many folk that aren't in the market yet), rather than being somewhere to live. Of course actually building more houses would solve that problem eh?
I think it is bonkers that on the salary I had when working in London 9 years ago (about 65k), I wouldn't be able to get a mortgage now for the modest 3 bedroom council house I grew up in in east london, now THAT'S F'ING CRAZY!!!
Chill out my friend, life gods on, and I GENUINELY wish you and your family well.
Kind regards,
Jay.
It is quite true that the pound has dropped in value against other currencies and gold. That is in itself a very helpful change, which will help our exporters and discourage the buying of excessive imported goods - thereby stimulating domestic industries. It's not so good for people going on holidays abroad, as their money won't go so far - but which effect do you honestly think is more important for the health of the UK?
The Bank of England's decision to lower Base Rate is generally agreed to have been utterly pointless and harmful if anything. It was actually calculated to cause a further depreciation of sterling, as obviously when interest rates get lower, invstors are apt to pull out their money and put it elsewhere. One wonders whether the Bank of England, like so many others, is still trying to prove that Brexit will be harmful rather than doing its best to help the economy.
Apologies for the rather vulgar turn of phrase, however this is important stuff.
Brexit, really was never a good solution to the problems the British establishment were having with the EU, and they knew that. It is the political equivalent of throwing your toys out of the pram and screaming 'I HATE YOU'. It really wont serve the common good, it will only serve those who have the will and means to exploit the resulting chaos, and that isn't me, and isn't you, and it isn't the people who need the most help in society here, or abroad.
Do you really believe that a fractured and infighting Europe with more hate in it is good for any one? I had some grandparents who seemed to think that was bad last time around.
So with peace in mind, I hold out an olive pint to you sir, and will drink to a better future, whatever your definition of that is.
> Also the 'markets' seem to have rebounded from the 100% guaranteed calamity eh?
Which markets are you talking about?
On the foreign exchange markets, the pound is still worth around 15% less than it was before the vote.
As for shares, it's not unreasonable for the FTSE index to have risen by a similar amount - it just means that UK companies are worth the same in real (dollar) terms as before.
Oh honestly...
the economy is in a mess BECAUSE of the EU, or rather the use of the EU as a blanket excuse by government to send all our money abroad (Spanish tanks... what the hell is wrong with building BRITISH tanks in a BRITISH factory using BRITISH workers and BRITISH materials... that way we keep BRITISH tax payers money in BRITAIN and even better have an industry that can export and an army that can get new tanks and spares if we ever do need to go to war for real.... after all we have no British ships to go to Spain to get the parts ... remember the Argies... they lost the Falklands because they could neither make nor buy the exocets they needed to sink our task force)
The same idiots that think it is acceptable to buy foreign weapons are the same idiots that think we have to let our steel industry sink because of the same EU regs that seem to allow the Germans to keep theirs going. Much the same with cars, lorries, ships, coal, software and computers. (Strangely the banks somehow managed to get the help denied everyone else... despite those self same rules).
To be totally honest Europe is not to blame for the state of the UK, nor indeed for Brexit, it is our very own civil servants, traitors to a politically correct person.
However we should get out, stay out, use the money saved to bail out industry, we should build up our navy, airforce and army using ONLY British built products and we will once again have real employment in real factories making real goods... not paper shuffling tax collecting accountants and worse still leaching bankers taking wealth off the majority to accumulate it for the rich few
"… what the hell is wrong with building BRITISH tanks in a BRITISH factory using BRITISH workers and BRITISH materials... that way we keep BRITISH tax payers money in BRITAIN …"
1. That would create a monopoly which would increase the cost to the British taxpayer.
2. If you close your market to imports, other countries will close their market to your exports.
"… to let our steel industry sink because of the same EU regs that seem to allow the Germans to keep theirs going."
Ermm, it's not quite my field but I do seem to remember that the EU wanted to reduce steel imports from China, but Cameron vetoed that as he didn't want to upset the Chinese.
(Incidentally, the steel industry is quite complex. Tata is suffering in the UK, but their plants in NL seem to do quite well and are expanding. Possibly due to higher productivity, not sure.)
"… it is our very own civil servants, traitors to a politically correct person."
That is a very grave accusation to make against hundreds of thousands, even millions of people. Care to support it?
Incidentally, I remember the days before political correctness (i.e. the days of casual racism and discrimination based on class/accent/region - possibly discrimination against you, or me) and I know which I prefer. (Though I appreciate some folk take it too far, or use PC and health and safety as an excuse to hide behind when they're obstructive.)
Really? Using British materials? So you're going to use taxpayers' money to recreate the British coal and iron ore industries, both of which no longer exist, in order to make British steel (oops - more taxpayers money there then). The reopening cost of a single pit is likely to exceed the cost of buying our entire annual coal supply from abroad.
Tell me, are you expecting private enterprise to valiantly jump in to invest in these traditionally loss-making industries? Or are you proposing nationalisation?
The problem with every Brexiteer I have ever talked to is that they don't think things through. Talk of "making Britain great again" have no grounding in reality when we have no coal or iron industries, and no steel industry worth speaking of. Our (foreign-owned) large car manufacturing plants either assemble components largely manufactured elsewhere or , if they do actually manufacture here, use imported raw materials to make those cars. If the economic realities of Brexit do indeed drive those companies out of the UK then the assets will be stripped and all that will be left to start British car making will be empty sheds. This applies just as much to Jaguar-Landrover as it does to Nissan et al. The only way to stop this would be large-scale seizure of assets; nationalisation by any other name.
And compared to aviation tanks are simple; we do not have the expertise to recreate our own military aviation programme in anything under ten years, even if we had unlimited funds. Most of the Britons with the requisite skills now work for European consortia and have no intention of returning to the UK unless their residential rights are revoked as a result of Brexit.
The only way your "all British" proposal would work would be to launch a massive programme of nationalisation, asset freezing, currency control and huge tax rises. Welcome to the Soviet Socialist Republic of England & Wales... (I'm assuming the Scots and N. Irish will have had enough sense to bail by then!).
Yes, and why not? You want to continue to pay for millions to sit at home or do you want them contributing and reducing your tax bill? I want my tax bill down. Currently my total tax bill is ridiculous... income tax, social security tax, local tax, more local tax, an even more local tax, VAT, fuel duty, insurance tax, road fund licence, bbc licence, beer duty, wine duty, cigarette duty, police tax.... the list goes on and on and on. The reason for all of this tax is to fund the two prongs of policy... getting everyone else to make what our government wants to buy and paying the unemployed here enough to stop them starving.
Really it is totally unbelievable that anyone wants to support this.
And they are NOT loss making industries, they were originally set up by private enterprise, other countries seem able to dig coal out of the ground and make steel at a profit! True reopening pits is costly BUT in the long term employment and fuel supplies are achieved, the net cost compared to paying the unemployed and buying foreign is not as bad as the headline number. Add into this the strategic value of not being dependent on the middle east and Russia and I think it is a bargain. After all, Russia walked into Crimea and no one in europe could say squat... if they turned off the gas we would be in serious trouble, and when we buy oil and gas from the middle east we support the regimes that are actively paying for the terrorism we are also supposed to be fighting.
And yes, the current car industry does use a lot of imports, we need to wean off this and any drop in the value of the pound makes it all the more obvious we need to wean ourselves off it.
As to aviation, are you saying the British who created the Spitfire, Harrier and many other world beating planes are now somehow rather more stupid than the Americans? As I say TSR2 created by the British in the 50s was as good a plane as the eurofighter is today.
>unless their residential rights are revoked as a result of Brexit.
It is really surprising how many people seem to think that it wasn't possible to live in another European country until the EU came along and graciously made it possible. It was not only possible, it wasn't even very difficult.
In other news, the world is not flat.
Actually due in no small part to having a continuous well-funded, well maintained rail network between them and their raw materials. Things get a lot more expensive when you have to offload your coal and iron to a ship, then reload it at the other end.
OH please... you really think that taking money from the UK tax payer and giving it to the Spanish is cheaper????
Consider the WIDER situation.
When the Spanish build the tanks we will find ourselves paying unemployment to the men who would build the tanks in the UK, the men who would generate the power, the men who would create the steel, the men who would build the machinery, maintain the factory building, make the paint.... etc etc etc etc etc
Then to top that off when someone else wants a tank they won't come to the (now non existent) British tank factory they will go to the Spanish one.... after all if the British won't buy a British tank why the hell would the Sudanese or anyone else..... why????
This is just the same with ALL other British products... why buy a Range Rover when the British police prefer BMW X7s? Why employ a British software engineer when the British government prefers to pay the French to employ an Indian (at a cost in excess of what the British engineer gets paid)
Just because the Daily Mail says Thatcher was a genius for destroying British industry does not mean she was!
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