back to article Goldman Sachs: Windows' true market share is just 20%

Windows might still be the dominant desktop computing OS by a large margin, but Microsoft is in danger of becoming a small player in today's global computing market, according to a new report from financial bigwigs Goldman Sachs. The report, which was obtained last week by The Seattle Times, says that while Microsoft operating …

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    1. alcalde

      Re: Err really?

      Google "Linux Munich" - they switched 20,000 PCs to desktop Linux and to LibreOffice from MS Office, finished ahead of schedule, and their support calls have gone DOWN as a result.

      >and with money being the way it is, the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon.

      Isn't that MORE reason to adopt open source software? With money being the way it is, I see more reason than ever to adopt a lot more open source. Take PostgreSQL - fantastic enterprise-class client/server SQL database. RedHat published a comparison against Oracle without naming Oracle and PostgreSQL performed better, especially under high loads. It has GIS, full-text search and unique features like being able to create new data types and associated indexes, open source plugins available to add new types, indexes and functionalities, the ability to code stored procedures and triggers in at least 12 languages from java and C++ to python and R, etc. It also includes several features only available on the enterprise version of SQL server - data compression, partitioning and replication. The enterprise version of SQL server has to be licensed per server core with a 4-core minimum at over $6K per core. That means a minimum entry point for SQL Server Enterprise of $25K vs. $0 for PostgreSQL plus being more standard-compliant and extensible. SQL Server Enterprise costs can easily hit six digit figures. Yes, I think things WILL be changing anytime soon.

  1. Aoyagi Aichou
    Windows

    Off with their heads!

    People getting happy? Because then the only major options are oh so loved OS X which is more closed than a virgin in Alabama's countryside or Google (and we all trust Google with our data, right?) with their so-called Linux system Android. Oh yes, and then all the hundreds of real Linux distributions, that work -so- well throughout corporate structures. Yes, that's the tomorrow I people want to see.

    Oh well, good thing this news is only a different interpretation of statistics, well done Reg!

    1. alcalde
      FAIL

      Re: Off with their heads!

      >Oh yes, and then all the hundreds of real Linux distributions, that work -so- well throughout corporate

      >structures. Yes, that's the tomorrow I people want to see.

      Yes, the Linux distributions that DO work well throughout corporate structures. Go tell Red Hat and SUSE they must be missing something that you're not. Oh, and Google, which are running their own version of Ubuntu. The only problem Linux ever experiences in corporate structures is when it bangs into the wall of a proprietary, embrace-extend-extinguishified Microsoft "standard". Open standards, no issues. Period.

  2. Philip Lewis
    Mushroom

    Last time I looked, the Mac had consumed the university moarket for all but the geeks.

  3. sisk

    Uphill battle

    Microsoft faces an uphill battle (though not insurmountable)

    Battle plan step one: fire Balmer, get a real CEO. Any other step one will result in a failed uphill battle for Microsoft.

  4. RainForestGuppy

    Taken with a large Pinch of Salt

    How many times have Goldman Sachs been found guilty of trying to manipulating markets? They are a bank, not a IT consultancy, anything they write is aimed at making them money.

    I would suggest that they either have a large portfolio of Apple stock that want to talk up before dumping them on the market, or they are trying to build up a stake in MS by driving the price lower first.

  5. Sarah Davis
    Coat

    Goldman Sucs

    Arse ! more like.

    Saying MS only have 20% of the tech market is like saying that bikes, trucks, boats, trains, and planes have quite a chunk of the transport market, therefore car manu's should be worried - talk about irrelevant !

    Can anyone do all their work on a eBook reader, Portable Media Player, Tablet, or Phone (my MP3 player can't run an MS-OS. I suppose (if you care enough) you could ask what's the percentage of things that can actually run an MS-OS actually using an MS-OS ? - oh, 97% you say - well there you go.

    1. alcalde
      WTF?

      Re: Goldman Sucs

      You're missing the point... today phone=computer, tablet=computer. And yes, if everyone began biking to work or using mass transit or fuel-efficient scooters auto manufacturers WOULD be worried.

      >Can anyone do all their work on a eBook reader,

      If it involves reading... yes. :-)

      >Portable Media Player

      I can, but then mine runs Android and has a 5" screen and I'm going to get it to run desktop Linux soon. Just last night I remotely connected as root to a desktop PC via WiFi and SSH and killed a hung process and then later rebooted the system remotely. Is that work?

      >, Tablet,

      Certainly.

      > or Phone (my MP3 player can't run an MS-OS.

      You seem to be under the delusion that the only OS that counts is an MS-OS. In the Linux world they call that MTBS (Microsoft-Trained Brain Syndrome). It's the mistaken belief that Microsoft products are the only way to do something or that the way Microsoft does something is the only way it can be done. Symptoms include saying things like "I need to use Excel" instead of "I need to use a spreadsheet" or "I need to type this on Word" instead of "I need a word processor". In one vexing case I had a person insist to me she couldn't switch to desktop Linux "...because I can't sync my iPod with iTunes", which she repeated about three times in eight sentences. I then began to administer the cure by explaining to her that the operative phrase there was "...with iTunes". The Linux world doesn't use iTunes. But it does use Amarok, Banshee, Clementine, gtkpod and several other programs, all of which will sync to ipods just fine.

      While your phone may not be able to run a Microsoft OS (but it would if you had a WinPhone 8 model) my media player does run the Linux kernel, as does every Android device. Ubuntu is also completing work on "Ubuntu for Android". One would slip an Android phone into a dock which is connected to a monitor, keyboard and mouse and the device would immediately switch over to Ubuntu complete with a desktop interface. The OSes would be integrated to the degree that pages open on the Android browser would be open when launching the browser in Ubuntu! Contacts, etc. would be shared and the phone would still be able to take calls in this mode. No Microsoft necessary. Also, unlike WinRT, Linux has been ported fully to the ARM architecture including applications, most of which merely need to be recompiled. For instance, while Office runs on RT minus VBA script, LibreOffice continues to function normally including its support for its own basic script and the superior options javascript and python. Linux, not Microsoft or Apple, is the only option today if you want to run your desktop software on an ARM mobile device.

      In addition the Asus Transformer line of tablets have an optional keyboard dock with extra battery that turns the tablet into an ARM laptop as well as extending the runtime to about 14 hours. Given its unlocked bootloader you could install an ARM Linux distribution instead of Android and run regular desktop apps on it. Of course with VNC, SSH, etc. you could remotely connect to a server and use the tablet/laptop as a thin client.

      > I suppose (if you care enough) you could ask what's the percentage of things that can actually run an

      >MS-OS actually using an MS-OS ? - oh, 97% you say - well there you go.

      Sadly, I have absolutely no clue what this even means unless one assumes that you only regard Microsoft Windows as a "real" operating system, which is just ridiculous.

      I've seen new benchmarks of Linux on the Exynos dual-core ARM chip and in most benchmarks it blows away both the mobile and desktop versions of the Intel Atom chip and on many benchmarks places about half the results of an Intel i3 (although some were worse and a few better than that). About two years ago someone connected told me ARM was four years away from a chip with the same processing power as that year's entry-level x86 chip. It looks like they've made good progress towards that goal and possibly are even ahead of schedule depending on how the newest 64bit ARM architecture performs. This is the world we are heading towards: a mobile phone/computer that you simply plug into a small dock on your desk and which transforms into a normal desktop for large screen/keyboard use. Between increased storage densities, ubiquitous wifi and the cloud, you'll be carrying your only computer and its data with you wherever you go. The whole point is that it's looking more and more like Windows won't be the OS you'll be carrying around with you. MS could have tried to do what Ubuntu is doing and given us Windows in our pockets and it would have been an iPhone killer, but instead Ballmer's doing the only thing he's ever known how to do: leverage the existing monopoly to create another one. Between Win8 and the rumored Windows 9 "Blue" update next year, he's trying to force anyone who wants to develop for the Windows desktop to make apps compatible with the phone and tablet as well or be locked out of the Windows Store. Personally I think this is going to backfire big time. Either way, you need to understand that many phones today are now more powerful than the netbooks of a few years ago and they're eventually going to replace desktops for most users. Your (odd) thinking that it's not a computer unless the OS is from Microsoft is at least 10 years out of date.

  6. Colin Millar

    Outplayed at their own game

    MS success was built on allowing people to do stuff. It tied itself to the seemingly endless possibilties of the PC and blew the competition away because it enabled lots of stuff to be done in lots of ways. What do you want to do today?

    Those endless possibilities and doing stuff in lots of different ways is now seen as being driven more and more by the mobile market which particular train MS failed to board for whatever reason.

    The vast majority of people spending domestic market money don't care about maker - they just want to do what others are doing - smartphones and tablets is the current shiny market and MS are not in it.

    The more technically minded will not hold a torch for MS (or Apple or Samsung or Google) - if they are pro's in systems or support they have way to many calls on their priority list to waste time bigging up a software house (or fruit supplier).

    Corporates are influenced by many factors, price and technical effectiveness being just a couple of those factors. MS hasn't been cheap for many years and their reputation for tech effectiveness is being hurt by them being unable to compete in the mobile market, the Vista legacy and it looks like Metro is lining up nicely as Vista 2.

    MS are probably going to continue as a major player for many years to come - servers, desktops and laptops are not going away anytime soon, Libre Office is so painful to use that more than an hour or so every few days is likely to have workers going postal.

    What they have shown us here though is their inability to diversify into the more esoteric areas of tech. What do you want to do today? has become here's what we will let you do today

  7. MissingSecurity

    Eventually....

    MS will be all but dead here...

    I've already been mixing the environments, replacing email, FTP, (soon I'll be trying out a SAMABA server on the MS diehards). The funny thing is that 90% of the time people just want things to work, and if I can do this more cost effectively with linux, they could give a rats ass. Since were not fortune 500, I'm happily find suitable alternatives to MS.

    Hell, I am even thinking about setting up open stack on a series of kit, and letting development and QA setup and destroy their own test server environments...

    I may not get much of the general users two switch their desktop OS, but they could care less that document x is run on server y.

  8. The_Regulator

    LOL @ Marketshare including other devices

    Wow, shows that people will stop at nothing when it comes to trying to make a splash. I can't do 10% of the things I do with my PC running windows with any other device I own. As other poster commented maybe we should include washing machines and toaster ovens and microwaves in the numbers too.

    Dumb!!!

  9. Magnus_Pym

    Microsoft USP

    Why buy something else when you will still need a WinTel PC in some capacity?

    Microsoft historically built the market share by have a single machine that would fulfil ALL your computing needs when everything else could only do some. I don't think this is a disputed very much. Notice it's not buy Microsoft stuff, It's Don't buy non-Microsoft stuff or don't look elsewhere you might see something you like that we can't do.

    As new 'computing needs' where found Microsoft added feature to Windows to cover them so the paradigm held... ...for decades. Eventually the answer to the question changed. 'I'll get a Wintel PC AND a Blackberry so I can get my email on the move'. I'll get a Wintel PC AND smartphone because there is an App which is useful on the move. I'll get a Wintel PC AND a tablet so I can ...whatever.

    It's important because the history of Microsoft is about selling the idea that there is no alternative. Once the buyer sees an alternative that Microsoft cannot buy or stifle then Microsoft must change the question. Not easy after so long at the top.

    1. Chemist

      Re: Microsoft USP

      I take your point but

      "Why buy something else when you will still need a WinTel PC in some capacity?"

      I don't and haven't needed to for 5 years

      1. Magnus_Pym

        Re: Microsoft USP

        Me neither but that was the Microsoft mantra from the past it's getting very long in tooth now.

    2. alcalde

      Re: Microsoft USP

      Beyond that Microsoft has deliberately tried to hide that alternatives even EXIST, as crazy as that is. When the secure boot controversy came up and Red Hat put out a white paper, Microsoft responded to it and continually used the term "alternative operating systems". Red Hat was the author and only sells one operating system, but about five times it was "alternative operating systems" in their response, not "Linux". "Alternative" apparently is meant to invoke the impression of non-mainstream, unusual, outside the norm. aberrant. It's similar to how some politicians leading a race refuse to acknowledge their opponent by using his/her name, with the idea that doing so acknowledges them as a contender. I envisioned a Microsoft PR person smirking as they kept saying "alternative operating systems". Even on the Microsoft partition manager it labels Linux partitions as "unknown". They're not unknown; every partition on a disk has a hex code that identifies what type it is and Linux was assigned two codes for its data and swap partitions many years ago. Use any 3rd-party partition manager and its correctly labels them Linux partitions; however Microsoft is essentially "terra incognita" and "here there be dragons". :-) It's ridiculous, but even among Windows trolls the line is always that Linux isn't a "real" operating system and doesn't count/isn't ready (although they'll try to do this to a lesser extent with OS X too). And I'm not sure the Windows OS installer will EVER acknowledge that other OSes exist; at least as of Win7 it had no problem attempting to create a boot partition on the primary drive if you tried installing it on a secondary drive and overwriting the primary boot sector WITHOUT ASKING or even telling the user; I only caught it because there were already the maximum number of primary partitions on the main drive. Someone once noticed me using Linux on a laptop and asked me about it and after I explained she said, "I didn't know you could run anything else on these things", which is the way Microsoft apparently likes to keep it.

  10. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Well, at least telling us the bleedin' obvious

    Is mostly harmless. Certainly far less harmful than sinking economies. So I for one sincerely hope Goldman Sachs continues in the mostly harmless business of saying the bleedin' obvious.

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