They've lost it
That's it, the signs I've been waiting for. M$ has trouble: a huge number of people ask DELL (heaven forbid) to install Linux on their Laptops; they ship a new OS that's crap and they don't know how to fix it.
But really, it's just me fantasizing and doing wishful thinking because M$ did not get rich by developing great software and probably never will.
As long as people will buy PCs (and that's going to be a while) M$ has money. Because most people either never heard of Linux or have no clue how to install anything (except spyware of course) and M$ has a firm grip on those OEMs which will not ship anything else in the foreseeable future.
The savvy will switch and the clueless will stay. Which is the bigger group?
Micha