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* Posts by Dunstan Vavasour

344 posts • joined Monday 14th May 2007 13:16 GMT

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Dunstan Vavasour

Re: This is what happens when you focus on being big instead of good

I had a brilliant HP calculator when I was at university in the 1980s. I once dropped it while crossing the road and it was run over by a car - the only sign was a small crack in one corner of the case. And although they were presumably completely separate businesses, having the Hewlett Packard name on top quality laboratory and medical instruments was fantastic for the brand: there would be a rush to bags the HP oscilloscope for practical sessions.

A very different HP to today's.

Dunstan Vavasour
Boffin

Can we please shun the term "IP"?

Call me a Stallmanite grouch, but I still find the term "IP" unhelpful, preferring the more specific terms: patents; trademarks; copyrights; trade secrets.

This story is about patents and patent applications.

Dunstan Vavasour

Re: Not really thinking, are they?

A good explanation of the phenomenon you describe is shown in this slideshow

http://www.slideshare.net/padday/the-real-life-social-network-v2

Dunstan Vavasour
Boffin

So is it like this?

So does it work like this?

a) There are loads of naturally occurring bacteria, some of which are susceptible to antibiotics, others are resistant

b) These bacteria have reproduced for millennia, using humans and other species as breeding grounds

c) The antibiotic susceptible ones have been by far the more widespread, outcompeting the resistant ones

d) 70 years ago we waded in with antibiotics, and started hitting out at the susceptible ones in their key breeding grounds (firstly humans, then other species)

e) The anti-biotic resistant ones have found their competitors' population falling, and have started to spread out into the extra space.

Dunstan Vavasour
Coat

Re: "Can you smell the anti-trust lawyers starting to circle?"

Now.

I don't like Google's lawyers

But I also don't like Apple's lawyers

But which is worse? There's only one way to find out...

Dunstan Vavasour

PoE

They've stated that PoE is on the wish list for later models, if it can be provided at the right price.

Dunstan Vavasour

Contrariwise

So is every outage for a locally hosted solution an indictment of the locally hosted approach?

Dunstan Vavasour
IT Angle

That's all very well, doctor^H^H^H^H^H^Hfireman, but shouldn't you be at work?

Dunstan Vavasour

Crocodiles

Let's hope the frogmen don't run into any escaped crocodiles.

Dunstan Vavasour

Thou shalt not put the Lord to the test

Of course, it was the Lord who created double blind testing, so He can present whatever results He chooseth. Experience shows that He's not going to give short cuts which remove the need for faith. http://goo.gl/Sxb0G

Dunstan Vavasour

Gartner Adoption Curves

If you think about it, the dollar value of Bitcoins has almost exactly followed the Gartner Hype cycle, and it's now in the "trough of disillusionment". ( http://goo.gl/4Bxvp ).

What will be interesting is whether, as with many technologies, it disappears at this part of the cycle, or whether it finds its way to a plateau of productivity as a niche form of tokens for exchange.

Dunstan Vavasour
Megaphone

And also

You forgot:

Everything causing cancer will cause house prices to rise/fall

Dunstan Vavasour

D'oh

D'oh

Dunstan Vavasour
Thumb Up

Awesome

This is an awesome public service, making one of history's most significant finds publicly available together with authentic interpretation. Long may Google perform this sort of service.

Dunstan Vavasour
Flame

Beating up on them

Yes we absolutely *should* beat up on them for believing it was real. It's not the job of journalists to tell us what might fit with our pre-conceptions, it's their job to evaluate material, check and verify on it, and then create a story from it. ANY study from a non-mainstream research organisation should be scrutinised before publication, not just slapped into an article and pushed out willy nilly.

Dunstan Vavasour
Flame

Churnalism

"News stories" come primarily from two sources: news wire services (PA, AP, Reuters) and PR. Very few organisations can afford to do original reporting, or even bother to check the stuff they are fed. They are either rushing to be the first to carry the story, or saying "it's been put out by X so that's my independent verification".

It's simpler to always assume that a research organisation you haven't heard of before is a PR outfit, and their "studies" are worthless. Makes reading newspapers much quicker too, as you read a couple of lines of each article and think "newswire, newswire, PR, newswire, PR...".

The days of true investigative reporting are, alas, over.

Dunstan Vavasour
WTF?

Nothing to see here

A service in the very early stages of field trials had a fault, the fault was fixed. The end.

Dunstan Vavasour
FAIL

+1

I was going to +1 this article, but there isn't a button, only a legacy "like" button

Come on Reg, get with the programme. This isn't 2010 you know.

Dunstan Vavasour
Thumb Up

29th June Oracle Reply

I would encourage you to read the submission Oracle sent on June 29th, references in TPM's article. It is the first time I've read a legal submission which is laugh out loud funny - got some strange looks from my colleagues in the office, mind, when I told them what I was reading.

In particular, their use of "partnership" in inverted commas brings to mind Dr Evil and the "Laser". I have no idea of the legal merits of their submission, but as knockabout stuff it is top notch.

Dunstan Vavasour
Devil

Plausible deniability

I would imagine that there were unwritten "don't ask, don't tell" codes of practice whose purpose was to allow plausible deniability when asked "did you know". I expect the honest answer to that question will be "I made sure that I didn't know, so I could answer that question in the negative".

If Coulson and Brooks deliberately established or continued practices which knowingly kept them uninformed of wrongdoing then, well, they are implicitly complicit. Once this all starts being examined in detail under oath, I would expect the other papers will be in much the same position.

My hope for the outcome from this affair is that in future the GBPublic, as they read stories in the rags, will ask themselves "how did the reporters find this out?"

Dunstan Vavasour
Pint

Hashing

And that, boys and girls, is why you should use a long password. Modern GPUs can calculate hashes at an extraordinary rate, making brute force attacks on 6, 7 and even 8 character passwords eminently doable.

Dunstan Vavasour

Milgram

Given the right social context people will become complicit with activities which, to an external observer, are clearly immoral. Milgram showed this in the 1960s, and it has ever been true.

This is why the editorial team are responsible: they set the context in which the perpetrators of this despicable deed acted, and copy writers didn't shun the material.

As for exhorting people to stop buying NoTW, save your breath. We have the press we deserve. Depressing, isn't it?

Dunstan Vavasour
Happy

In the cinema

And for those who live in the Midlands and want the full cinema experience, it is showing at Warwick Arts Centre on the 18th and 19th of August - I expect the remastered version will pop up in arts house cinema across the country.

Dunstan Vavasour

Bitcoin != MtGox

When you trade on Mt Gox they are acting as your stakeholder. Transactions in the Bitcoin block chain are irreversible, trades on Mt Gox don't enter the block chain until the Bitcoins are withdrawn - until then they are just entries in Mt Gox's ledger.

If someone bough a bunch of coins while the price was through the floor and then withdrew them before Mt Gox was suspended, then presumably Mt Gox will be left holding the loss.

Dunstan Vavasour
Thumb Down

MtGox != Bitcoin

The currency wasn't compromised, but the most widely used exchange was. The integrity of the block chain was not compromised. Indeed, the conversion rates at other exchanges stayed pretty much unchanged.

Mt Gox is not a financial grade conversion facility, and the willingness of people to entrust large sums of money to an "exchange" about which so little is known is testament to people's stupidity (and greed). At the same time, the bitcoin block chain will keep running onwards, an interesting little backwater, where both techies and ne'er-do-wells have entries in a fascinating peer-to-peer replicated ledger, whose entries are secured with strong encryption.

This episode may well be the beginning of the end of Mt Gox, but Mt Gox != Bitcoin

Dunstan Vavasour
Meh

I might be missing something here...

So have we essentially re-invented server based write-through block level cacheing where a single server addresses the LUN?

Dunstan Vavasour
Unhappy

The dilemma for HP-UX shops.

The dilemma for HP-UX shops is this:

a) Keep HP-UX as your mission critical platform, risking early obsolescence for what should be the most long-lived systems and applications

b) Form a contingency plan. In which case Larry wins

In the midst of this awesome gladiatorial struggle between two titans, the livelihoods of thousands of honest decent IT professionals are "collateral damage". And this is saddening.

Dunstan Vavasour

Ponzi Scheme or intangible commodity

Well, Bitcoins have some immutable characteristics. They are (to current analysis) secure and cannot be destroyed as long as the block chain exists. The block chain is intrinsically distributed and unlikely to fork. And they have value in the same way that much of the financial system has value---because people ascribe value to them (usually referred to as "confidence").

Their value as a pseudo-currency today is limited while the value against legal currency is so volatile. This volatility will continue as waves of people discover them (and as new, more user friendly interfaces are developed), and at that level it's like a Ponzi scheme. But it's certainly possible to imagine scenarios where they become the reserve commodity behind subsidiary e-currencies. And it is the lack of regulation and the ability to regulate which is so interesting: the only regulation possible is proscription, which would result in a fascinating game of cat and mouse with law enforcement.

While it may be a worthless bubble, if someone creates a trusted web friendly method of wallet management, and bases it somewhere so that exchange can be via conventional means (avoiding the Virwox shuffle via Linden Dollars^H^H^H^H^H^H^HGame Tokens) then the bubble has a lot of expansion space yet, because at the moment you still have to have a degree of technical savvy to get into bitcoins at all.

Dunstan Vavasour

Longevity

The single outstanding feature of applications deployed to SPARC/Solaris is their longevity. Time and again, the only thing which is driving migration is the impending withdrawal of hardware support. This never seems to be the case with either Windows or GNU/Linux. Why is that?

Dunstan Vavasour
Boffin

API changes

While the users are humans rather than applications, this is just like changing an API: something you previously did has a different consequence

Usually a change in API is publicised well in advance, and accompanied by Release Notes. Given that FB are positioning themselves as a general provider of online identity services, they need to start taking APIs seriously, whether used by software or humans.

Seems ironic that they are moving into the buildings vacated by Sun in Menlo Park - Sun's Binary Compatibility Guarantee (maintained under Oracle) is the gold standard of stability for user software APIs.

Dunstan Vavasour

Kernel Fork

While most of the non-Linux packages will be unchanged apart from rebranding, Oracle have done a lot of work on the kernel primarily, as has been written above, to make Oracle database and application software work better.

At the moment this is a simple fork. In time, of course, merging their changes and the linux.org ones will become an interesting knife and fork task. Whether they have been able to allocate some of the Solaris kernel developers to work on Unbreakable Linux, or whether the skills aren't transferable I would be interested to learn.

Dunstan Vavasour

Overpaid Database Guru

It doesn't take an overpaid database guru to put your list into Access, and create queries which filter and sort columns. And it's much harder to do something stupid.

Dunstan Vavasour
Devil

"The Power of Excel"

My problem is precisely with the power of Excel: it gets used for complex data manipulation tasks without any proper software process and testing regimen - for example, out of range and invalid data values; data entered beyond the input areas; etc.

While the organisation you run sounds as if it programmes in Excel properly, this is rarely the case. And while it's not Excel's fault that people create rubbish and feebly tested applications atop its framework, it makes very bad software development practice very easy, and hence the norm.

Dunstan Vavasour
Devil

Tried and Tested????

Excel itself is tried and tested, and has very few bugs.

But the user created functional parts in an Excel based application are usually hideously bug ridden, undocumented and unscaleable. Excel's strength is also the biggest problem: All in one place you have data entry, the data repository, all the functional logic and the output presentation. If a major spreadsheet is treated like proper software development, and subject to verifiable and repeatable unit and integration testing then it will function well.

If, however, you hire an individual Excel jockey and set her/him to work with no functional specification, or data schema, then you will likely get something where you simply don't know if the output is right or wrong.

The problem isn't with Excel per se, it's with the lack of validation and control around the development of complex software within the Excel framework.

Dunstan Vavasour
Facepalm

I stand corrected

I apologise, my memory playing tricks. I thought kernel 2.0 came with version 6, but it was actually 2.2

Dunstan Vavasour

"Don't Build against the kernel"

I totally agree: stuff should use user level API wherever possible.

But in many contexts there *will* be stuff linked into the kernel: it may be a specialist bit of hardware with a compiled driver, or a proprietary shim twixt system and some bit of storage without which the rig is "unsupported", or a HSM which presents as a filesystem - in all these cases, you have to specify an exact kernel version, you can't say "Solaris 10 running at patch level x or later".

We can have a discussion about whether we should be linking compiled proprietary software into the Linux kernel, but GNU/Linux has been positioned as an enterprise class datacentre operating environment. The unices which it is displacing have much more stable kernel APIs.

Dunstan Vavasour

RedHat 4

RedHat 4 was not only running kernel version 1, it was also running glibc version 1. Version 5 introduced glibc version 2, and version 6 introduced kernel 2.0.

Dunstan Vavasour

Underlines Linux Kernel API Instability

In many spheres of software endeavour, major version changes *are* significant, because they represent a compatibility discontinuity. I have a lot of experience with Solaris: the SunOS 5.10 kernel released in 2005 is compatible with the 5.10 kernel in the current production Solaris 10. Stuff which linked into the kernel in 2005 is guaranteed to still link in now (though a load of additional kernel API has been added with additional feature goodness, while retaining the original kernel API unchanged).

By contrast, the Linux kernel API changes every six months or so. So there is no need to reserve a major version rollover for something which breaks compatibility: such a break happens frequently. Therefore a major version change can be made according to whim, rather than marking a discontinuity.

Dunstan Vavasour

Depth of choice

In many ways, virtualisation in the x86 market is becoming commoditised. We have Amazon EC2 based on Xen - though for most punters that doesn't matter: it's just a bunch of x86 capacity at the end of a bit of wire. Oracle are also backing Xen with OVM. We have Microsoft lining up a range of vendors behind Hyper-v cloud, with the basic Hyper-v offering being free (gratis), and a public cloud offering (Azure) which again is a bunch of x86 capacity at the end of a bit of wire.

Red Hat may be keen to build up an ecosystem behind KVM, but we're past the point where the virtualisation engine is a differentiator: it is the overall experience which matters.

Dunstan Vavasour
Boffin

Reminds me of Sun kit around year 2000

I remember a spate of similar thefts of Sun kit around the year 2000. The wrong-uns would steal the processor/memory and I/O boards from running E3500/4500/6500 systems - as there were no machine readable serial numbers inside, they could be used in any unpopulated system chassis. I'm guessing there were plenty of empty base units sold in the target territories. The advanced version, used in one particularly large heist, was to leave just enough hardware that the system would reboot and come up, but with little capacity.

I'd be interested to know the make and generation of kit which disappeared here. Still, I supposed it makes a change from the trains being late because the copper in the signalling system was stolen.

Dunstan Vavasour
Happy

My Mum and Dad

Well, for my Mum who rarely writes a document, and whose primary usage is email, browsing and simple games (card games), I love the idea. She can turn it on when she wants to use it, print stuff out using cloudprint, and then turn it off again at the switch. And I don't need to set her up a backup regime, coz nothing's held on the machine. And if the very worst comes to the very worst, and she drops it, the machine is a FRU.

Dunstan Vavasour

One Way Pendulum

Didn't Jonathan Miller teach speak-your-weight machines to sing the Hallelujah chorus in the film One Way Pendulum?

Dunstan Vavasour
Happy

Good solution for this class of application

For an application where:

a) There is no personal data involved, and

b) A loss of data would be a nuisance but not disastrous, and

c) Where there are no performance constraints beyond "good enough"

this is an ideal solution. Indeed, it delivers on pretty much every promise of "the cloud" - and the three week time to market for new customers underlines the point.

The challenge is coming up with solutions where one of (a), (b) or (c) is not the case.

Dunstan Vavasour
Flame

Carbon footprint is Power times Time

Whether the windmills are generating at the time of maximum demand will effect the amount of non-windmill capacity required. But they are still generating many kilowatt hours every year, which replaces burnt carbon, whether it is at times of maximum demand or not. The carbon footprint isn't about the instantaneous rate at which it is emitted, rather about the total quantity emitted each year.

Even if the windmills are becalmed for a significant proportion of the time, that doesn't mean they "don't work".

Dunstan Vavasour

Encryption

Is it me? Setting up an encrypted drive is so easy that to not do so is reprehensible, whether the USB fob is lost or not.

Dunstan Vavasour
Boffin

10% for men and 3% for women

Lewis's interpretation isn't how it was presented this morning.

It's *not* that 10% is down to former alcohol consumption and 3% down to current, rather that for men it's 10% and for women it's 3%, in both cases down to "current and former alcohol consumption". It's not entirely clear as to whether this correlation is directly down to the alcohol or whether there are other co-correlating variables.

But, on the whole, this is actually a rather better study than most of the "health stories", involving a very large cohort being followed over more than a decade. The findings, as always, need caution but it's not as rubbish as most of them are.

Dunstan Vavasour
Go

Support is very costly

It's pretty simple really. Each different platform on which you support your software costs money: you have to compile and test it, and create installers, and documentation sets, and then you need to create and distribute patches and retain teams of support staff in each global region for the extended life of the product, so for products launching next year this will take you towards 2020. If you only have a few hundred sales, or even a few thousand, it will cost you way more than you will make in sales.

With Exadata, P-series and SPARC at the top end, and Wintel and GNU/Linux at the bottom end, the potential market share for Itanium based systems is pretty small. For Intel and HP it is a blow, but for Oracle it is sensible housekeeping.

Dunstan Vavasour

Things getting worse more slowly

By turning a corner, they may be deteriorating more slowly. The power cabling from the remaining grid has now reached Fukushima, but won't be powered up until tomorrow. When it is powered up, we then have to see which of the pumps sets can usefully move anything: the pumps have to turn (assuming the heat in the area hasn't seized bearings) and the pipework they use has to hold up. But having useful amounts of power at the plant should open a range of possibilities.

We still have the bizarre comment from TEPCO that the probability of re-criticality in the pond of stored fuel rods above reactor 4 is "non-zero". Does this, perhaps, mean that they stacked the rods closer than they should be, depending on the (presumably boron laced) cooling water to keep them non-critical? IF this were the case, then there is potential for a critical reaction outside a reactor vessel - pure speculation, but one interpretation of this bizarre statement.

As for the conspiracy of silence from TEPCO - I don't for a minute think it's misrepresentation, rather that they have no realistic idea what's going on. It may be years until anyone knows the true state of affairs, which will unfold as the plant is decommissioned. This will be a lengthy process - at least there was only one reactor to deal with at Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.

Lewis is right to state that there has been no harmful civilian exposure, and there probably will be none, but if we get a big fire we could yet have fission materials put into the air.

Oh, and it appears that TEPCO have had a load of boric acid shipped in from Korea - suggests they're all out.

Dunstan Vavasour
Flame

Public perception of risk unrelated to probability

Why are people having a go at Lewis?

We live surrounded by radiation: it comes from the sky, from the ground, and people take actions all the time which expose themselves to radiation - getting on an aircraft; moving to a city made of granite; having an X-ray or CT scan. There is very good collected data about the harmful levels of radiation, not least from 50 years of running nuclear power stations, and international safety levels have been set with reference to this collected evidence, well within the bounds where potential harm might happen.

What has happened at Fukushima is a right mess, and it will take them years to decommission. And there have been short releases of radioactive matter into the air: matter with short half lives, blown out to sea by the wind, with an intensity which is detectable but has no health consequences.

Away from Fukushima, we have a country where large numbers of people have no homes to go back to, thousands are dead, large areas of cultivation have been ruined and the land contaminated with salt, and a significant proportion of the country's electricity generating capacity has been lost.

The focus on Fukushima is understandable, but its consequences will minimal.

Dunstan Vavasour
Happy

Exadata

For the database layer, we're doing this already with Exadata: there's no choice to have external storage, but you can plumb racks together by joining the Infiniband domains together.

At the server layer I'm with Chris - a Cisco UCS installation has all the I/O usage from potentially tens of servers aggregated at the Fabric interconnect. You then configure two or four or six uplinks into the storage fabric - you could put this directly into a storage subsystem and, if you don't, you're massively reducing the number of connected physical ports on your SAN.

Of course, manging all the virtualisation and abstraction layers places new requirements for organisation and discipline on the system administrators.

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