Re: A little slanted?
"When you think how many Falcons they blew up in their early days, they actually seem to be on a pretty good trajectory with this latest toy."
And, of course, not forgetting the number of early Starship "hops" that ended in RUDs too, but to be fair, this is effectively two separate rockets, each with the own foibles and problems doing things that have either not been done before or not been done on this huge size of vehicle and then combining them and their "unknowns" into one big launch stack :-)
I wasn't surprised the first launch ended in explody bits, but was surprised at the amount of damage to the launch pad and tower. I wasn't *too* surprised at the second lauch booster explosion and was really getting hopeful for Starhip as it just seemed to keep going up and was sadly dissapointed but hugely surprised that it too didn't fully succeed.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. SpaceX seem to operated a little like Kickstarter projects. There's a goad you want and need to reach, and then there's "stretch goals" that would be nice to reach. On the whole, SpaceX do generally seem to meet their main goals and sometimes reach some of the stretch goals. If nothing else, it's a lot more existing than spending 10 years, going massively over budget and massively of target date for a "first time success" :-) And as someone else suggested, a first time success could mean it's over engineered and over weight as well as over budget!